FEMA Records
13
Low volume
Arizona · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Graham County, AZ
13 FEMA disaster declarations (1966-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 13
- FEMA declarations
- 10
- Major disasters
- 65
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Graham County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 13 declarations, more than 17% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 22% below the Arizona county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 35%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 35%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 13
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 42
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Graham County compare?
Graham County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
13 17th percentile higher than 17% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Graham County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arizona county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Graham County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $9.0M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Low), while Heat Wave carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Graham County's hazard record show?
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 64.6/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low (roughly $18.2M in annualized losses), and a Relatively High social-vulnerability profile combined with Very Low community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Among the 18 modeled hazards, Heat Wave carries the county's highest rating, a mid-range Relatively Moderate. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 4.9 modeled event-days per year here, based on 53 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Graham County's 13 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Arizona, however, the count is 22% below the county mean. 10 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Flood, appearing 7 times. The full 54-year record averages 0.2 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 42 claims and $351.3K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Arizona county averages 16.7 federal declaration records, while Graham County has 13. The gap is 22% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
51 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Graham County, AZ · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
9/30
13 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.6x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
10/25
13 declarations (0.8x state county average of 17)
Major Disaster Share Very High
19/25
10 of 13 declarations are major disasters (77%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Graham County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Arizona Avg
-22%
State avg: 16.7
vs. National Avg
-37%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.2
Over 54 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Graham County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
77%
Mostly major
NRI risk score
65
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Graham County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 4.9 modeled event-days per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 180 years |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 58 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 85 modeled event-days per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 7.1 times per year |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | an average of 1.7 times per year |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 850 years |
| Landslide | Very Low | an average of 2 times per year |
| Hail | Very Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 44 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | roughly once every 59 years |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 11 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 7
Biological 2
Severe Storm 2
Hurricane 1
Drought 1
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Graham County's record, 54% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 10 76.9%
of all 13 declarations
Emergency - 3 23.1%
of all 13 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2006 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1991 | 1 | |
| 1984 | 1 | |
| 1979 | 1 | |
| 1978 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 1 | |
| 1973 | 1 | |
| 1966 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 13 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 13 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4524 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-04-04 |
| 3442 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 1660 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2006-09-07 |
| 3241 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-12 |
| 1586 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2005-04-14 |
| 977 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1993-01-19 |
| 884 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1990-12-06 |
| 691 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1983-10-05 |
| 570 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1978-12-21 |
| 551 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1978-03-04 |
| 3038 | DROUGHT | EM | Drought | 1977-04-15 |
| 360 | HEAVY RAINS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1972-10-25 |
| 217 | FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1966-04-30 |
Storm Events in Arizona
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Graham County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood | 2,094 | 45 | 18 | $149.9M |
| Excessive Heat | 1,812 | 1,497 | 120 | $0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1,680 | 3 | 19 | $75.9M |
| Heat | 727 | 1,206 | 39 | $0 |
| High Wind | 446 | 0 | 0 | $734.0K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
42
Total Paid
$351.3K
Avg Per Claim
$8.4K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 64.6/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$18.2M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively High
Community Resilience
Very Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Drought Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Heat Wave
Heat Wave is measured in event-days per year rather than discrete events, and it is the hazard whose harm is most consistently undercounted: its toll is health and mortality, concentrated among people without cooling, rather than visible damage to property.
Worth noting for Graham County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Heat Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively Moderate), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Graham County's closest FEMA peer: Carroll County, AR
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Graham County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Similar modeled NRI score
Graham County: NRI composite 64.6 (Relatively Low).
Similar Major-disaster share
Graham County: 10 of 13 of its declarations are Major.
Closest declaration profiles
Graham County shows 13 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Graham County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 13 FEMA declarations, Graham County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Graham County?
The most common disaster type in Graham County is Flood, with 7 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Hurricane (1).
How does Graham County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arizona average?
The typical Arizona county has 16.7 FEMA declaration records; Graham County has 13, or 22% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 37% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Graham County received?
Graham County has received 10 major disaster declarations, representing 77% of all 13 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Graham County filed?
Graham County has 42 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $351.3K in payments, with an average of $8.4K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Graham County?
No. In Graham County, Heat Wave has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively Moderate), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $9.0M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Graham County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Graham County was 2005, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1966 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Graham County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Graham County, Arizona has an overall risk score of 64.6 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively High and community resilience is Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $18.2M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Graham County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Graham County is Heat Wave (risk rating: Relatively Moderate). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Relatively Moderate) and Lightning (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts heat wave here at 4.9 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 53 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Graham County
Against a Arizona county mean of 17 declarations, Graham County, AZ records 13, or 22% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (10 of 13) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Arizona overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 17% of recorded county totals, but its own Arizona benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.