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The data below is historical (NOAA Storm Events / FEMA), not a live alert. For current warnings and evacuation orders, check the National Weather Service, Ready.gov, or FEMA.gov.

Texas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Johnson County, TX

19 FEMA disaster declarations (1989-2021), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Fire.

19
FEMA declarations
9
Major disasters
87
NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
Fire
Top hazard

The verdict

Johnson County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 19 declarations, more than 41% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 9% below the Texas county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 13%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.

Riskiest 13%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Relatively Moderate
FEMA National Risk Index rating
19
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
332
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.

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FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk

County FIPS 48251 · Johnson County 19 declarations · rank 1824/3,266

DECL-MID · MAJOR-LIGHT · RANK-LOWER · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-MID · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-BELOW

  • DECL-MID 19
  • MAJOR-LIGHT 47%
  • RANK-LOWER #1,824
  • PHOTO-FINISH Bartow
  • NRI-MID 87
  • ACT-HIGH High
  • TYPE-LEAD Fire
  • VS-ST-BELOW -9%

Nearest declaration peer: Bartow, GA (0 declaration gap)

FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Texas state profile

Johnson County in the declaration-count neighbourhood

FEMA declaration records among Johnson County and nearest peers by total count

declarations

What this shows Johnson County carries 19 FEMA declaration records, ranked 1824 of 3,266 counties in this registry.

Source FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 As of 2026-08-25

How Johnson County's FEMA declaration count compares nationally

Johnson County vs. all counties in this dataset

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Johnson County

19 41st percentile higher than 41% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25

Johnson County's FEMA Risk Index score

0/100100/100Texas avg49/10086.7/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Texas county average

What does Johnson County's hazard record show?

Reading the federal records together

The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 332 paid claims, totaling $4.9M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $14.8K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.

Start with the state benchmark: a Texas county averages 20.9 federal declaration records, while Johnson County has 19. The gap is 9% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.

FEMA National Risk Index

This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 86.7/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Moderate (roughly $70.7M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Relatively Moderate, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Tornado stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 1 years here, based on 73 historical events on record.

57 /100

Historical Activity Index

High historical activity

Johnson County, TX · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
14/30

19 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.9x national county average)

County Disaster Density Moderate
11/25

19 declarations (0.9x state county average of 21)

Major Disaster Share Moderate
12/25

9 of 19 declarations are major disasters (47%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20

8 different disaster types declared in Johnson County

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Johnson County

Johnson County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 8, Flood 48, Hurricane 8, Tornado 70, Wildfire 48, Drought 25, Heat Wave 48, Winter Storm 48. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 38 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 38 8-hazard mean
Johnson County NRI risk profile FIPS 48251 · displayed-hazard mean 38/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

19

Below median

Major Disaster share

47%

Mixed major share

NRI risk score

87

Relatively Moderate

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Johnson County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Tornado Relatively High roughly once every 1 years
Wildfire Relatively Moderate roughly once every 265 years
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate 17 modeled event-days per year
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate roughly once every 1 years
Hail Relatively Moderate an average of 8.6 times per year
Ice Storm Relatively Moderate roughly once every 1 years
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate an average of 2.5 times per year
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate an average of 3.8 times per year
Lightning Relatively Moderate an average of 53 times per year
Hurricane Very Low roughly once every 44 years
Earthquake Very Low roughly once every 1,471 years
Winter Weather Relatively Low an average of 3.6 times per year
Drought Relatively Low 44 modeled event-days per year
Landslide Very Low roughly once every 10 years

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Fire 5
Severe Storm 4
Hurricane 3
Severe Ice Storm 2
Biological 2
Other 1
Drought 1
Flood 1

What Fire declarations mean here

Fire is the most frequent declaration type on Johnson County's record, 26% of its declarations. Wildfire is the one hazard here with its own dedicated federal instrument: the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which appears in this data as an FM record. An FMAG can be authorised while a fire is still burning, on a timescale of hours, because its purpose is to reimburse the cost of fighting a fire that threatens to become a major disaster.

That distinction matters when comparing counties. An FM declaration is not a presidential major disaster declaration and does not carry the same assistance programmes, so a fire-heavy county's total is not directly comparable with a hurricane-heavy county's total unless the declaration types are separated, which is why they are listed separately on this page.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 9 47.4%

of all 19 declarations

Emergency - 8 42.1%

of all 19 declarations

Fire Management - 2 10.5%

of all 19 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2021 2
2020 2
2015 1
2008 1
2006 2
2005 3
2003 1
2001 1
1999 1
1998 1
1993 1
1992 1
1990 1
1989 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 19 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 19 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
4586 SEVERE WINTER STORMS DR Severe Ice Storm 2021-02-19
3554 SEVERE WINTER STORM EM Severe Ice Storm 2021-02-14
4485 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-03-25
3458 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
4223 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2015-05-29
3284 WILDFIRES EM Fire 2008-03-14
2621 HUNTINGTON BROOK FIRE FM Fire 2006-01-19
1624 EXTREME WILDFIRE THREAT DR Fire 2006-01-11
1606 HURRICANE RITA DR Hurricane 2005-09-24
3261 HURRICANE RITA EM Hurricane 2005-09-21
3216 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-02
3171 LOSS OF THE SPACE SHUTTLE COLUMBIA EM Other 2003-02-01
2351 TX - ALSBURY FIRE - 08/29/00 FM Fire 2001-01-05
3142 EXTREME FIRE HAZARDS EM Fire 1999-09-01
1239 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DR Severe Storm 1998-08-26
3113 EXTREME FIRE HAZARD EM Drought 1993-09-10
930 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DR Flood 1991-12-26
863 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1990-05-02
828 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING DR Severe Storm 1989-05-19

Storm Events in Texas

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Johnson County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Hail 14,072 0 15 $7.4B
Thunderstorm Wind 10,293 41 141 $369.9M
Drought 7,032 0 0 $86.0K
Flash Flood 4,728 338 24 $47.6B
Heat 4,079 119 405 $0

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

332

Total Paid

$4.9M

Avg Per Claim

$14.8K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Relatively Moderate

Score: 86.7/100

Expected Annual Loss

Relatively Moderate

$70.7M/year

Social Vulnerability

Relatively Low

Community Resilience

Relatively Moderate

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Tornado Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Hail Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively Moderate
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Tornado

Tornado exposure is the most spatially concentrated in the model: total destruction along a narrow corridor with intact property either side. County-level averages therefore understate severity badly for anyone actually in the path, and overstate it for everyone else.

Worth noting for Johnson County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Tornado carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Fire. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Johnson County's closest FEMA peer: Gloucester County, NJ

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Johnson County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Johnson County - capture-dated entries only.

Compare beyond this state

Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume

Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Johnson County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.

Further reading for this county

Understanding disaster data

Johnson County's NFIP claims file (332 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Johnson County?
The most common disaster type in Johnson County is Fire, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
How does Johnson County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Texas average?
The typical Texas county has 20.9 FEMA declaration records; Johnson County has 19, or 9% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 8% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Johnson County received?
Johnson County has received 9 major disaster declarations, representing 47% of all 19 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Johnson County filed?
Johnson County has 332 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $4.9M in payments, with an average of $14.8K per claim.
What was the worst year for disasters in Johnson County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Johnson County was 2005, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1989 to 2021.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Johnson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Johnson County, Texas has an overall risk score of 86.7 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). On social vulnerability the county rates Relatively Low; on community resilience, Relatively Moderate. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Moderate, representing $70.7M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Johnson County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Johnson County is Tornado (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Relatively Moderate) and Heat Wave (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts tornado here at roughly once every 1 years, drawn from 73 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Johnson County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Texas profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events