FEMA Records
24
Above median
Texas · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Ellis County, TX
24 FEMA disaster declarations (1989-2024), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate. Most common hazard: Fire.
- 24
- FEMA declarations
- 11
- Major disasters
- 82
- NRI risk · Relatively Moderate
- Fire
- Top hazard
The verdict
Two federal records point in the busier direction for Ellis County. Its 24 FEMA declarations are 15% above the Texas county mean and exceed the count for 66% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 18%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.
- Riskiest 18%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Moderate
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 24
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 159
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.
How does Ellis County compare?
Ellis County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
24 Top 34% higher than 66% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Ellis County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Texas county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Ellis County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $23.8M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Hail carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Ellis County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 159 paid claims, totaling $6.0M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $38.0K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
The declaration register points in the busier direction. Ellis County's 24 federal records stand 15% above the Texas county mean of 20.9. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 81.6/100 (Relatively Moderate). Expected Annual Loss is rated Relatively Low (roughly $46.9M in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Relatively High, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Hail stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 7.9 times per year here, based on 298 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
The FEMA register is busy by both local and national comparisons. It contains 24 entries for Ellis County, including 11 Major Disaster records, 15% above the Texas county mean. Across the 35-year span, that works out to 0.7 declarations a year. Fire leads the file with 6 entries. Declaration type records the federal action taken, not every assistance program approved.
62 /100
Historical Activity Index
High historical activity
Ellis County, TX · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
17/30
24 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.2x national county average)
County Disaster Density High
14/25
24 declarations (1.1x state county average of 21)
Major Disaster Share Moderate
11/25
11 of 24 declarations are major disasters (46%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
20/20
8 different disaster types declared in Ellis County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Texas Avg
+15%
State avg: 20.9
vs. National Avg
+16%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.7
Over 35 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Ellis County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
46%
Mixed major share
NRI risk score
82
Relatively Moderate
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Ellis County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Hail | Relatively High | an average of 7.9 times per year |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 17 modeled event-days per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | roughly once every 1 years |
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 55 times per year |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | roughly once every 716 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 3.5 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | an average of 1 time per year |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 68 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,181 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 3.9 times per year |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 29 modeled event-days per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 8 years |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Severe Storm 6
Fire 6
Hurricane 5
Severe Ice Storm 2
Biological 2
Flood 1
Other 1
Drought 1
What Fire declarations mean here
Fire is the most frequent declaration type on Ellis County's record, 25% of its declarations. Wildfire is the one hazard here with its own dedicated federal instrument: the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which appears in this data as an FM record. An FMAG can be authorised while a fire is still burning, on a timescale of hours, because its purpose is to reimburse the cost of fighting a fire that threatens to become a major disaster.
That distinction matters when comparing counties. An FM declaration is not a presidential major disaster declaration and does not carry the same assistance programmes, so a fire-heavy county's total is not directly comparable with a hurricane-heavy county's total unless the declaration types are separated, which is why they are listed separately on this page.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 11 45.8%
of all 24 declarations
Emergency - 10 41.7%
of all 24 declarations
Fire Management - 3 12.5%
of all 24 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 2 | |
| 2020 | 3 | |
| 2016 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 1 | |
| 2011 | 1 | |
| 2008 | 2 | |
| 2007 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 3 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1990 | 1 | |
Show 1 earlier declaration years
| 1989 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 24 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 24 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4781 | SEVERE STORMS, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 2024-05-17 |
| 4586 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS | DR | Severe Ice Storm | 2021-02-19 |
| 3554 | SEVERE WINTER STORM | EM | Severe Ice Storm | 2021-02-14 |
| 3540 | TROPICAL STORMS MARCO AND LAURA | EM | Hurricane | 2020-08-24 |
| 4485 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-25 |
| 3458 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4255 | SEVERE WINTER STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2016-02-09 |
| 4223 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2015-05-29 |
| 2925 | COUNTY LINE FIRE | FM | Fire | 2011-06-18 |
| 3294 | HURRICANE IKE | EM | Hurricane | 2008-09-10 |
| 3284 | WILDFIRES | EM | Fire | 2008-03-14 |
| 1709 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2007-06-29 |
| 2629 | VENUS FIRE COMPLEX | FM | Fire | 2006-02-05 |
| 1624 | EXTREME WILDFIRE THREAT | DR | Fire | 2006-01-11 |
| 1606 | HURRICANE RITA | DR | Hurricane | 2005-09-24 |
| 3261 | HURRICANE RITA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-21 |
| 3216 | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-02 |
| 3171 | LOSS OF THE SPACE SHUTTLE COLUMBIA | EM | Other | 2003-02-01 |
| 3142 | EXTREME FIRE HAZARDS | EM | Fire | 1999-09-01 |
| 2273 | MIDLOTHIAN FIRE | FM | Fire | 1999-08-31 |
Show 4 earlier declaration records
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1239 | TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY | DR | Severe Storm | 1998-08-26 |
| 3113 | EXTREME FIRE HAZARD | EM | Drought | 1993-09-10 |
| 863 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1990-05-02 |
| 828 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 1989-05-19 |
Storm Events in Texas
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Ellis County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 14,072 | 0 | 15 | $7.4B |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 10,293 | 41 | 141 | $369.9M |
| Drought | 7,032 | 0 | 0 | $86.0K |
| Flash Flood | 4,728 | 338 | 24 | $47.6B |
| Heat | 4,079 | 119 | 405 | $0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
159
Total Paid
$6.0M
Avg Per Claim
$38.0K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Moderate
Score: 81.6/100
Expected Annual Loss
Relatively Low
$46.9M/year
Social Vulnerability
Relatively Low
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Hail Relatively High
Heat Wave Relatively Moderate
Cold Wave Relatively Moderate
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Wildfire Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Relatively Low
Hurricane Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Drought Relatively Low
Landslide Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Hail
Hail is among the most expensive hazards in the model relative to how little it threatens life. It concentrates on roofs, vehicles and crops, and a single severe storm can generate an insurance loss across a metropolitan area without a single injury.
Worth noting for Ellis County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Hail carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Fire. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Ellis County's closest FEMA peer: Montgomery County, AL
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Ellis County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Ellis County shows 24 FEMA declarations, led by Fire.
Similar Major-disaster share
Ellis County: 11 of 24 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Ellis County: NRI composite 81.6 (Relatively Moderate).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Ellis County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Ellis County's NFIP claims file (159 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Ellis County?
The most common disaster type in Ellis County is Fire, with 6 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (5), Severe Ice Storm (2).
How does Ellis County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Texas average?
FEMA lists 24 declaration records for Ellis County. That is 15% above the Texas county mean of 20.9. Its count is also 16% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Ellis County received?
Ellis County has received 11 major disaster declarations, representing 46% of all 24 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Ellis County filed?
Ellis County has 159 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $6.0M in payments, with an average of $38.0K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Ellis County?
No. In Ellis County, Hail has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $23.8M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Ellis County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Ellis County was 2005, with 3 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1989 to 2024.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Ellis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Ellis County, Texas has an overall risk score of 81.6 out of 100 (Relatively Moderate). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Relatively Low, representing $46.9M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Ellis County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Ellis County is Hail (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Heat Wave (Relatively Moderate) and Cold Wave (Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts hail here at an average of 7.9 times per year, drawn from 298 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Ellis County
Ellis County, TX has 24 federal declaration records, 15% more than the Texas county mean of 21; its history sits in PlainHazard's high activity band.
- Within this above-state-average declaration file, major disaster leads with 11 of 24 records; the category describes past federal action, not the next likely hazard. Texas overview
- The state benchmark and national rank point the same way: this count tops the Texas mean and the totals for 66% of 3,266 U.S. counties. Most-disaster rankings
- Use the data guide to separate this mid-volume insurance-claims file from declaration counts and modeled NRI risk. Disaster-data guide
An above-average declaration count records past federal responses; it does not predict the next event. Current warnings come from the National Weather Service and local emergency officials.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.