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Arizona · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Maricopa County, AZ

26 FEMA disaster declarations (1966-2024), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very High. Most common hazard: Fire.

26
FEMA declarations
13
Major disasters
100
NRI risk · Very High
Fire
Top hazard

The verdict

Two federal records point in the busier direction for Maricopa County. Its 26 FEMA declarations are 56% above the Arizona county mean and exceed the count for 75% of the 3,266 counties in this registry. Separately, FEMA's National Risk Index places it in the riskiest 1%, based on modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience.

Riskiest 1%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Very High
FEMA National Risk Index rating
26
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
2,632
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Fire Management Assistance (FM) records, which are not presidential disaster declarations, alongside Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records.

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FEMA OpenFEMA declaration desk

County FIPS 04013 · Maricopa County 26 declarations · rank 779/3,266

DECL-HEAVY · MAJOR-MID · RANK-MID · PHOTO-FINISH · NRI-HIGH · ACT-HIGH · TYPE-LEAD · VS-ST-HIGH

  • DECL-HEAVY 26
  • MAJOR-MID 50%
  • RANK-MID #779
  • PHOTO-FINISH Hunterdon
  • NRI-HIGH Very High
  • ACT-HIGH High
  • TYPE-LEAD Fire
  • VS-ST-HIGH +56%

Nearest declaration peer: Hunterdon, NJ (0 declaration gap)

FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 filing stamps for this county register. Read with this county → · Arizona state profile

Maricopa County among high-volume declaration counties

FEMA declaration records among Maricopa County and nearest peers by total count

declarations

What this shows Maricopa County carries 26 FEMA declaration records, ranked 779 of 3,266 counties in this registry.

Source FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 As of 2026-08-25

Where Maricopa County ranks in the national declaration registry

Maricopa County vs. high-volume counties in this registry

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time · Maricopa County

26 Top 25% higher than 75% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-25

Maricopa County's FEMA Risk Index score

0/100100/100Arizona avg85/10099.9/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Arizona county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Maricopa County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $1.1B Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively High), while Heat Wave carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Maricopa County's hazard record show?

Reading the federal records together

FEMA's NFIP table contains a substantial paid-claim history for this county: 2,632 claims and $26.1M in payments. PlainHazard labels 500 or more claims a heavy registry record; that is a reporting bucket, not an official FEMA risk grade. The average paid claim was $9.9K. NFIP totals exclude uninsured flood losses and do not measure how many properties currently carry a policy.

The declaration register points in the busier direction. Maricopa County's 26 federal records stand 56% above the Arizona county mean of 16.7. That comparison describes how often federal action was recorded, including any Major Disaster, Emergency, and Fire Management entries shown on this page; it does not convert the count into future probability.

FEMA National Risk Index

This county sits among the highest-risk counties nationally on FEMA's National Risk Index, a composite score of 99.9/100 (Very High). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very High (roughly $2.2B in annualized losses). Social vulnerability reads Relatively Low and community resilience Very Low, both critical modifiers of realized harm here. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Heat Wave stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Very High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at 20 modeled event-days per year here, based on 154 historical events on record.

64 /100

Historical Activity Index

High historical activity

Maricopa County, AZ · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) High
19/30

26 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (1.3x national county average)

County Disaster Density Very High
19/25

26 declarations (1.6x state county average of 17)

Major Disaster Share High
13/25

13 of 26 declarations are major disasters (50%)

Hazard Diversity High
13/20

5 different disaster types declared in Maricopa County

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Maricopa County

Maricopa County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 48, Flood 92, Hurricane 8, Tornado 48, Wildfire 70, Drought 70, Heat Wave 92, Winter Storm 25. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 57 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 57 8-hazard mean
Maricopa County NRI risk profile FIPS 04013 · displayed-hazard mean 57/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

26

High volume

Major Disaster share

50%

Major-heavy

NRI risk score

100

Very High

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Maricopa County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Heat Wave Very High 20 modeled event-days per year
Riverine Flooding Very High an average of 8.5 times per year
Wildfire Relatively High roughly once every 534 years
Hail Very High roughly once every 4 years
Strong Wind Very High an average of 1.4 times per year
Drought Relatively High 63 modeled event-days per year
Earthquake Relatively Moderate roughly once every 93 years
Lightning Relatively High an average of 32 times per year
Tornado Relatively Moderate roughly once every 2 years
Landslide Relatively Low an average of 2.1 times per year
Winter Weather Relatively Low roughly once every 2 years
Avalanche Very Low roughly once every 100 years
Hurricane Very Low roughly once every 87 years

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Fire 11
Flood 9
Severe Storm 3
Biological 2
Hurricane 1

What Fire declarations mean here

Fire is the most frequent declaration type on Maricopa County's record, 42% of its declarations. Wildfire is the one hazard here with its own dedicated federal instrument: the Fire Management Assistance Grant, which appears in this data as an FM record. An FMAG can be authorised while a fire is still burning, on a timescale of hours, because its purpose is to reimburse the cost of fighting a fire that threatens to become a major disaster.

That distinction matters when comparing counties. An FM declaration is not a presidential major disaster declaration and does not carry the same assistance programmes, so a fire-heavy county's total is not directly comparable with a hurricane-heavy county's total unless the declaration types are separated, which is why they are listed separately on this page.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Major Disaster - 13 50.0%

of all 26 declarations

Fire Management - 11 42.3%

of all 26 declarations

Emergency - 2 7.7%

of all 26 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2024 2
2023 1
2020 7
2015 1
2005 5
2001 1
2000 1
1993 1
1991 1
1980 1
1979 1
1978 1
1972 1
1970 1
1966 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 26 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 26 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
5501 BOULDER VIEW FIRE FM Fire 2024-06-28
5496 ROSE FIRE FM Fire 2024-06-12
5466 DIAMOND FIRE FM Fire 2023-06-28
5315 AVONDALE FIRE FM Fire 2020-06-27
5314 AQUILA FIRE FM Fire 2020-06-23
5313 BUSH FIRE FM Fire 2020-06-20
5311 OCOTILLO FIRE FM Fire 2020-05-30
5310 EAST DESERT FIRE FM Fire 2020-05-18
4524 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-04-04
3442 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
4203 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Flood 2014-11-05
3241 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-12
2570 AZ-WILDFIRE (EDGE COMPLEX) 07-22-2005 FM Fire 2005-07-22
2561 CAVE CREEK FIRE COMPLEX FM Fire 2005-06-22
2559 AZ-BOBBY FIRE-06-08-2005 FM Fire 2005-06-08
1586 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2005-04-14
1347 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING DR Severe Storm 2000-10-27
1304 SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, HIGH WINDS DR Severe Storm 1999-10-15
977 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES & FLOODING DR Flood 1993-01-19
884 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1990-12-06
Show 6 earlier declaration records
DR# Title Type Incident Date
614 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1980-02-19
570 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1978-12-21
551 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1978-03-04
343 SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING DR Flood 1972-07-03
294 HEAVY RAINS & FLASH DR Flood 1970-09-22
217 FLOODING DR Flood 1966-04-30

Storm Events in Arizona

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Maricopa County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Flash Flood 2,094 45 18 $149.9M
Excessive Heat 1,812 1,497 120 $0
Thunderstorm Wind 1,680 3 19 $75.9M
Heat 727 1,206 39 $0
High Wind 446 0 0 $734.0K

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

2,632

Total Paid

$26.1M

Avg Per Claim

$9.9K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Very High

Score: 99.9/100

Expected Annual Loss

Very High

$2.2B/year

Social Vulnerability

Relatively Low

Community Resilience

Very Low

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Heat Wave Very High
Riverine Flooding Very High
Wildfire Relatively High
Hail Very High
Strong Wind Very High
Drought Relatively High
Earthquake Relatively Moderate
Lightning Relatively High
Tornado Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Avalanche Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Cold Wave No Rating

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Heat Wave

Heat Wave is measured in event-days per year rather than discrete events, and it is the hazard whose harm is most consistently undercounted: its toll is health and mortality, concentrated among people without cooling, rather than visible damage to property.

Worth noting for Maricopa County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Heat Wave carries the highest modeled rating (Very High), while the county's declaration history is led by Fire. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Maricopa County's closest FEMA peer: Wake County, NC

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Maricopa County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Maricopa County - capture-dated entries only.

Compare beyond this state

Nationwide peers by NRI score & FEMA declaration volume

Two PlainHazard-derived comparison paths for Maricopa County: nearest out-of-state National Risk Index composite and nearest FEMA declaration count (floor ≥5 records). Record similarity only, not a forecast of the next hazard.

Further reading for this county

Understanding disaster data

Maricopa County's NFIP claims file (2,632 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.

More PlainHazard guides

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Maricopa County?
The most common disaster type in Maricopa County is Fire, with 11 declarations. Other disaster types include Flood (9), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
How does Maricopa County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Arizona average?
FEMA lists 26 declaration records for Maricopa County. That is 56% above the Arizona county mean of 16.7. Its count is also 25% above the national county mean of 20.7. A larger declaration history records more federal actions; it is not a forecast of the county's next hazard.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Maricopa County received?
Maricopa County has received 13 major disaster declarations, representing 50% of all 26 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Maricopa County filed?
Maricopa County has 2,632 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $26.1M in payments, with an average of $9.9K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Maricopa County?
No. In Maricopa County, Heat Wave has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $1.1B. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Maricopa County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Maricopa County was 2020, with 7 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1966 to 2024.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Maricopa County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Maricopa County, Arizona has an overall risk score of 99.9 out of 100 (Very High). The county's social vulnerability rating is Relatively Low and community resilience is Very Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very High, representing $2.2B in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Maricopa County?
Based on FEMA NRI data, the highest-risk natural hazard in Maricopa County as of the latest release is Heat Wave (risk rating: Very High). Other significant hazards include Riverine Flooding (Very High) and Wildfire (Relatively High). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts heat wave here at 20 modeled event-days per year, drawn from 154 historical events on record. FEMA derives these ratings from historical event frequency, the assets exposed, and the community's vulnerability profile.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

FEMA OpenFEMA declarations + NRI for Maricopa County · vintage 2026-08-25 · Methodology · Arizona profile · Verify with FEMA OpenFEMA · Verify with NOAA Storm Events