Newton County, Missouri
County storm and disaster record · FIPS 29145 · population 58,493 · 625 sq mi
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 1,055 records for Newton County, Missouri from 1950 through June 30, 2026, on 576 days; the most frequent are hail reports (345 records). The deadliest single record is the May 10, 2008 tornado: 14 deaths, 200 injuries and $48.0 million in damage in 2025 dollars. FEMA has issued 29 declarations naming the county since 1973, 27 of them for natural hazards; the latest for a natural hazard was “Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding” on August 3, 2026.
The record, 1950 to 2026
Storm records filed for the county each year (2026 to June 30, 2026). Before 1996 NOAA recorded only tornadoes (from 1950), thunderstorm wind and hail (from 1955).
- recorded, no damage figure
- under $100,000
- $100,000 or more
- $1 million or more
- $10 million or more, or a death
- $100 million or more, or 10 deaths
- a year's colour: its recorded damage or deaths
- a year with a death
- 1955: wind and hail recorded from 1955
- 1996: all 48 event types from 1996
- Storm records
- 1,055on 576 days, 1950 to June 30, 2026
- Deaths recorded
- 22256 injuries
- Damage, 2025 dollars
- $350Mas filed (scale steps before 1993)
- Tornadoes
- 54strongest EF4
- FEMA declarations
- 29latest 2026
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records through June 30, 2026 (file revision 20260918); damage converted to 2025 dollars with the BLS CPI-U. Search the record at NCEI. BLS consumer price index.
What hazards hit Newton County most?
The most frequent records are hail reports: 345 since 1957. 52% of its hail reports since 1957 fell in April and May. The rank column places the county among Missouri's counties by days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land over each hazard's complete period.
| Hazard | Records | Days | First, last | Killed | Injured | Damage | Rank in state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 345 | 186 | 1957-2026 | 0 | 0 | $416K | 8 of 114 |
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 271 | 180 | 1957-2026 | 0 | 6 | $6.8M | 17 of 114 |
| Floods | 244 | 159 | 1996-2026 | 2 | 0 | $11M | 5 of 114 |
| Tornadoes | 54 | 43 | 1954-2025 | 17 | 239 | $225M | 8 of 114 |
| Winter storms | 52 | 50 | 1996-2026 | 3 | 11 | $58M | 72 of 114 |
| Drought | 37 | 37 | 1999-2026 | 0 | 0 | $39M | 17 of 114 |
| Heavy rain | 23 | 16 | 2009-2025 | 0 | 0 | – | 12 of 114 |
| Extreme cold | 9 | 9 | 2000-2025 | 0 | 0 | $9.3M | 67 of 114 |
| Heat | 9 | 9 | 1999-2012 | 0 | 0 | – | 95 of 114 |
| High wind and dust storms | 5 | 3 | 2003-2015 | 0 | 0 | $118K | 83 of 114 |
| Fog, smoke and funnel clouds | 3 | 3 | 2005-2017 | 0 | 0 | – | 20 of 114 |
| Lightning | 2 | 2 | 2010-2011 | 0 | 0 | $70K | 43 of 114 |
| Wildfires | 1 | 1 | 2006-2006 | 0 | 0 | – | 33 of 114 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database (county and forecast-zone records attributed to the county; a zone record shows its own totals on each county it covers). Days: dates with at least one record of the hazard in the county. Ranks: days with a record per 1,000 square miles of land (Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer), since 1950 for tornadoes, 1955 for hail and thunderstorm wind, 1996 for the rest.
How many tornadoes has Newton County had?
NOAA records 54 tornadoes in Newton County from 1954 to 2025, the strongest rated EF4, with 17 deaths and 239 injuries recorded in the county. That is 8th of 114 Missouri counties and 203rd of 3,080 U.S. counties by days with tornadoes per 1,000 square miles since 1950. A tornado that crossed a county line is counted in each county it touched, with the length of its path inside the county.
Counted as whole tornadoes rather than county records, the Storm Prediction Center's database holds 54 tornadoes whose track touched Newton County since 1950 (NOAA's county records number 54, the same count); along their whole tracks they killed 190 people, 17 of them in Newton County.
| Date | Tornado | Rating | Path | Killed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-05-22 16:34, as SPC files it | Joplin | EF5 | 21.62 mi | 158 |
| 2008-05-10 16:20, as SPC files it | PurdyCrossed MO, OK | EF4 | 75.51 mi | 21 |
| 2003-05-04 17:50, as SPC files it | Springfield | F3 | 49 mi | 7 |
| 1975-04-24 18:40, as SPC files it | Neosho | F4 | 11.9 mi | 3 |
| 1976-03-26 16:00, as SPC files it | Sarcoxie | F3 | 29.1 mi | 1 |
Map of the strongest tornado tracks in Missouri.
Every tornado record filed for Newton County (54)
| Date | Place | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-29 | Boulder City, Newton County | EF0 2.07 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $80K |
| 2023-02-27 | Mc Elhany, Newton County | EF1 0.75 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $533K |
| 2021-10-11 | Mc Elhany, Newton County | EF1 3.34 mi x 90 yd | 0 | 0 | $82K |
| 2018-08-19 | Ritchey, Newton County | EF0 1.1 mi x 40 yd | 0 | 0 | $24K |
| 2017-05-19 | Neosho, Newton County | EF0 4.1 mi x 300 yd | 0 | 0 | $60K |
| 2017-05-10 | Fredville, Newton County | EF0 1 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $120K |
| 2017-04-04 | Mc Elhany, Newton County | EF0 12.5 mi x 300 yd | 0 | 0 | $120K |
| 2016-04-26 | Seneca, Newton County | EF1 0.82 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 0 | $61K |
| 2015-05-16 | Seneca, Newton County | EF0 10.83 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $249K |
| 2014-09-01 | Wentworth, Newton County | EF0 1.24 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $12K |
| 2014-09-01 | Saginaw, Newton County | EF1 2.7 mi x 400 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2014-09-01 | Saginaw, Newton County | EF1 2.22 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $62K |
| 2013-05-20 | Seneca, Newton County | EF1 0.81 mi x 400 yd | 0 | 0 | $127K |
| 2011-05-22 | Pepsin, Newton County | EF2 7.06 mi x 800 yd | 0 | 0 | $918K |
| 2011-05-22 | Saginaw, Newton County | EF2 11.52 mi x 1,000 yd | 0 | 0 | $131K |
| 2011-05-22 | Redings Mill, Newton County | EF2 1.3 mi x 300 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| 2008-05-10 | Hornet, Newton County | EF4 30.89 mi x 1,760 yd | 14 | 200 | $48M |
| 2008-03-31 | Belfast, Newton County | EF0 3.82 mi x 80 yd | 0 | 3 | $137K |
| 2008-03-31 | Seneca, Newton County | EF1 2.37 mi x 60 yd | 0 | 0 | $69K |
| 2006-03-12 | Neosho, Newton County | F0 0.1 mi x 15 yd | 0 | 0 | $15K |
| 2006-03-12 | Neosho, Newton County | F1 7 mi x 75 yd | 0 | 1 | $293K |
| 2005-06-30 | Racine, Newton County | F0 2 mi x 25 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2005-06-30 | Redings Mill, Newton County | F0 2 mi x 25 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2005-06-13 | Diamond, Newton County | F0 0.2 mi x 25 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2004-07-04 | Hornet, Newton County | F1 1 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 0 | $234K |
| 2003-05-04 | Ritchey, Newton County | F2 7 mi x 400 yd | 0 | 0 | $802K |
| 2002-12-17 | Fairview, Newton County | F0 0.5 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $82K |
| 2001-05-20 | Diamond, Newton County | F0 0.5 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $17K |
| 2001-04-15 | Redings Mill, Newton County | F1 5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 1 | $3.3M |
| 2001-04-15 | Neosho, Newton County | F1 8 mi x 400 yd | 0 | 0 | $6.7M |
| 1996-09-26 | Boulder City, Newton County | F1 9 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $66K |
| 1994-09-25 | Diamond, Newton County | F0 0.5 mi x 20 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1994-09-25 | Diamond, Newton County | F0 0.5 mi x 20 yd | 0 | 0 | $40 |
| 1993-10-08 | Seneca, Newton County | F1 0.1 mi x 120 yd | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| 1991-04-26 | Newton County | F0 0.2 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1985-05-29 | Newton County | F1 1 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $250K step |
| 1985-05-29 | Newton County | F1 0.5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $250K step |
| 1983-04-29 | Newton County | F0 1 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $250 step |
| 1976-03-26 | Newton County | F3 3.8 mi x 40 yd | 0 | 0 | $250K step |
| 1975-04-24 | Newton County | F4 6.5 mi x 500 yd | 3 | 22 | $25M step |
| 1974-06-08 | Newton County | F1 2 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | – |
| 1974-06-08 | Newton County | F1 1 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 6 | $2.5M step |
| 1974-04-13 | Newton County | F2 0.5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
| 1971-12-14 | Newton County | F1 10 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $250K step |
| 1971-02-04 | Newton County | F1 0.2 mi x 30 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
| 1970-10-26 | Newton County | F1 0.1 mi x 10 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
| 1968-04-19 | Newton County | F1 1 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1967-01-27 | Newton County | F2 4.9 mi x 200 yd | 0 | 0 | $250K step |
| 1962-06-09 | Newton County | F0 0.5 mi x 67 yd | 0 | 0 | $30 step |
| 1962-06-02 | Newton County | F1 0.5 mi x 17 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1961-03-12 | Newton County | F2 1.9 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 6 | $250K step |
| 1958-05-31 | Newton County | F2 0.5 mi x 20 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1956-02-24 | Newton County | F1 0.3 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 0 | $25K step |
| 1954-03-24 | Newton County | F1 11.9 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 0 | $3K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, tornado records by county (path length in the county, maximum width); ratings as published: F scale before February 1, 2007, EF scale after. Whole-track figures: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950-2025). SPC severe weather database.
When was the last damaging storm in Newton County?
The most recent record with damage, injuries or deaths is the June 14, 2026 flood (1 death).
One person was swept away by flood waters one mile west of Raccoon Road at Shoal Creek in Newton county.
National Weather Service event narrative, NOAA Storm Events Database (search the full record, event 1337882)
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | FloodRitchey, Newton County | 1 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-06-13 | Thunderstorm WindRitchey, Newton County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $5K |
| 2026-06-13 | Thunderstorm WindRitchey, Newton County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $10K |
| 2026-06-08 | Thunderstorm WindMonark Spgs, Newton County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $16K |
| 2026-06-08 | Flash FloodSaginaw, Newton County | 0 | 0 | $25K | |
| 2026-06-08 | Flash FloodHornet, Newton County | 0 | 0 | $50K | |
| 2026-06-08 | Flash FloodSpring City, Newton County | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-06-08 | FloodRacine, Newton County | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-06-08 | Flash FloodNeosho, Newton County | 0 | 0 | – | |
| 2026-04-27 | Thunderstorm WindDiamond, Newton County | 50 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-04-26 | Thunderstorm WindDiamond, Newton County | 52 kt wind | 0 | 0 | – |
| 2026-04-23 | Thunderstorm WindWentworth, Newton County | 61 kt wind | 0 | 0 | $60K |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; every record of 2025-2026 is listed, earlier ones when they caused deaths, injuries or $250,000 of damage (2025 dollars), and every tornado.
The deadliest and costliest records
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-05-10 | TornadoHornet, Newton County This tornado is an extension of the Ottawa County, Oklahoma tornado. A National Weather Service storm survey revealed that an EF-4 tornado crossed into Missouri just north of Iris Road, and tracked east southeast all the way across Newton County to just north of Fairview. Several people were killed in automobiles, ... | EF4 30.89 mi x 1,760 yd | 14 | 200 | $48M |
| 1975-04-24 | TornadoNewton County | F4 6.5 mi x 500 yd | 3 | 22 | $25M step |
| 2011-02-01 | BlizzardNewton County · forecast zone Newton A major winter storm produced heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times across southwest Missouri. Heavy snow accumulations of 14 to 20 inches were observed. Significant accumulations of sleet preceded the snow with accumulations up to 1 inch. Northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph resulted in drifts up to few feet and ... | 2 | 1 | $33K | |
| 2016-12-16 | Winter WeatherNewton County · forecast zone Newton Numerous car accidents were reported across the county due to slick road conditions from light freezing drizzle. There was one indirect fatality and at least one indirect injury due to accidents on slick roads around the county. A driver lost control of his car and struck another vehicle about five miles east of ... | 1 | 2 | $61K | |
| 2026-06-14 | FloodRitchey, Newton County One person was swept away by flood waters one mile west of Raccoon Road at Shoal Creek in Newton county. | 1 | 0 | – | |
| 2002-05-08 | FloodNewton County · forecast zone Newton The flash flooding event on the 7th and early 8th, became a major flooding event across all of southern and central Missouri through the early afternoon of May 9th. In addition to the numerous road closures, bridges blocked by debris, evacuations of towns, campgrounds, parks, and moderate river flooding, many ... | 1 | 0 | $16K | |
| 1974-06-08 | TornadoNewton County | F1 1 mi x 150 yd | 0 | 6 | $2.5M step |
| 1961-03-12 | TornadoNewton County | F2 1.9 mi x 50 yd | 0 | 6 | $250K step |
A damage figure marked "step" is a record from before 1993: NOAA then filed damage by category, and the figure is the category as entered, in the dollars of that year, not an estimate of the loss.
| Date | Record | Character | Killed | Injured | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-01-12 | Ice StormNewton County · forecast zone Newton | 0 | 0 | $57M | |
| 2008-05-10 | TornadoHornet, Newton County | EF4 30.89 mi x 1,760 yd | 14 | 200 | $48M |
| 2011-08-01 | DroughtNewton County · forecast zone Newton | 0 | 0 | $20M | |
| 2012-08-01 | DroughtNewton County · forecast zone Newton | 0 | 0 | $16M | |
| 2007-04-07 | Frost/FreezeNewton County · forecast zone Newton | 0 | 0 | $9.3M | |
| 2001-04-15 | TornadoNeosho, Newton County | F1 8 mi x 400 yd | 0 | 0 | $6.7M |
| 2001-04-15 | TornadoRedings Mill, Newton County | F1 5 mi x 100 yd | 0 | 1 | $3.3M |
| 2008-03-17 | Flash FloodHornet, Newton County | 0 | 0 | $2.7M |
Before 1993 NOAA filed damage by category, not amount, so the list above starts in 1993. The highest category filed here before then (entered as $25M, in the dollars of the day) holds: April 24, 1975 (tornado, Newton County, 3 killed).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database: deaths and injuries direct and indirect; damage is property plus crops as estimated by the National Weather Service, converted to 2025 dollars.
Is it getting more frequent?
Records per decade for Newton County's most frequent hazards. Counts rose everywhere after 1996, when NOAA began recording every event type, so compare decades within a hazard's complete period only (the shaded cells come before it).
| Hazard | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 3 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 49 | 118 | 102 | 42 |
| Severe thunderstorm wind | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 56 | 74 | 73 |
| Floods | – | – | – | – | 20 | 84 | 85 | 55 |
| Tornadoes | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 3 |
| Winter storms | – | – | – | – | 5 | 16 | 10 | 21 |
| Drought | – | – | – | – | 1 | 7 | 13 | 16 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records per calendar decade; zone records from the CZ_TYPE field (Z).
What time of year?
52% of its hail reports since 1957 fell in April and May. The two busiest months are in violet.
The values, month by month
Jan 35 · Feb 45 · Mar 119 · Apr 137 · May 259 · Jun 144 · Jul 90 · Aug 62 · Sep 56 · Oct 36 · Nov 35 · Dec 37 (records).
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records by the month they began.
Federal disaster declarations for Newton County
FEMA's register lists 29 declarations that include Newton County: 23 major disasters, 6 emergencies and 0 fire management assistance declarations. Most were for severe storm (15) and flood (6).
| Declared | Number | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | DR-4929 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2025-06-09 | DR-4876 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2020-03-26 | DR-4490 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020-03-13 | EM-3482 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019-07-09 | DR-4451 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2017-06-02 | DR-4317 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| 2016-01-21 | DR-4250 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| 2016-01-02 | EM-3374 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| 2011-05-09 | DR-1980 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2011-03-23 | DR-1961 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| 2011-02-03 | EM-3317 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009-06-19 | DR-1847 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2009-01-30 | EM-3303 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2008-05-23 | DR-1760 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| 2008-03-19 | DR-1749 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| 2008-02-05 | DR-1742 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2007-12-27 | DR-1736 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2007-12-12 | EM-3281 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2007-01-15 | DR-1676 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| 2006-03-16 | DR-1631 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| 2005-09-10 | EM-3232 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003-05-06 | DR-1463 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| 2002-05-06 | DR-1412 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| 1995-06-02 | DR-1054 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Hail, Flooding |
| 1993-07-09 | DR-995 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1976-07-21 | DR-516 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1975-05-03 | DR-466 | Tornado | Tornadoes, High Winds & Hail |
| 1974-06-10 | DR-439 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1973-04-19 | DR-372 | Severe Storm | Heavy Rains, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), declarations through October 2, 2026; one declaration is counted once however many areas it names. OpenFEMA dataset page.
How many floods has Newton County had?
NOAA's Storm Events Database holds 244 flood or flash flood records for Newton County from 1996 to 2026, on 159 days, with 2 deaths. By flood insurance claims since 1978 (OpenFEMA, as of September 8, 2026), Newton County ranks 899th of 2,942 U.S. counties.
The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $5.4 million on 215 claims filed in Newton County; the most in one year was 62 in 2017. Claims count insured losses only: uninsured flood damage is not in this file.
The values, year by year
1980: 1 · 1983: 1 · 1986: 4 · 1991: 1 · 1992: 2 · 1993: 5 · 1995: 5 · 1996: 1 · 1997: 2 · 2000: 2 · 2001: 1 · 2003: 5 · 2004: 1 · 2008: 15 · 2009: 9 · 2010: 1 · 2011: 28 · 2015: 29 · 2016: 1 · 2017: 62 · 2019: 31 · 2021: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2026: 5; the other years: 0.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims, as of September 8, 2026; claims by year of loss, payments in the dollars of the year paid. OpenFEMA dataset page.
FEMA's modeled risk for Newton County
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Newton County Relatively Low overall, with an expected annual loss of $35.5 million. These are FEMA's model estimates of future loss from 18 hazards, not a count of what happened; they can differ from the record above.
| Hazard | Risk rating | Expected annual loss | Modeled frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ice Storm | Very High | $1.8M | 1.1 a year (modeled) |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | $1.5M | 6.6 a year (modeled) |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | $2.9M | 15 modeled event-days a year |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | $5.9M | once in about 2 years (modeled) |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | $954K | 7.8 a year (modeled) |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | $18M | 5.4 a year (modeled) |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | $781K | 12 modeled event-days a year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | $156K | 9.9 a year (modeled) |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, county table, December 2025 release. FEMA's National Risk Index map.
Counties that share a border with Newton County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau county adjacency file; NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, records since 1950. The Census Bureau's adjacency file.
Next
- Tornadoes in MissouriEvery Missouri tornado since 1950 and the counties with the most per square mile
- Hail in MissouriThe state's hail reports, by county, year and month
- The Missouri recordEvery hazard in the state, its deadliest events and its federal declarations
- FEMA's risk rating for each hazard in Newton CountyThe hazard risk calculator: 18 hazards beside the county's record
- Download Newton County's FEMA declarations (CSV)29 rows: every declaration that named the county, for your own analysis