FEMA Records
12
Low volume
Pennsylvania · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Forest County, PA
12 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Hurricane.
- 12
- FEMA declarations
- 8
- Major disasters
- 20
- NRI risk · Very Low
- Hurricane
- Top hazard
The verdict
Forest County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 12 declarations, more than 14% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 35% below the Pennsylvania county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county safer than 20%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Safer than 20%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Very Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 12
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 14
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Forest County compare?
Forest County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
12 14th percentile higher than 14% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Forest County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Pennsylvania county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Forest County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $3.8M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Very High), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Forest County's hazard record show?
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Forest County's 12 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Pennsylvania, however, the count is 35% below the county mean. 8 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Hurricane, appearing 4 times. The full 48-year record averages 0.3 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county's FEMA National Risk Index composite lands at 19.9/100 (Very Low), a modest reading against the rest of the country. Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $5.0M in annualized losses), tempered or compounded by a Very High social-vulnerability score and Relatively Low community-resilience score. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Lightning stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 37 times per year here, based on 23,810 historical events on record.
Reading the federal records together
This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 14 claims and $193.6K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.
Start with the state benchmark: a Pennsylvania county averages 18.6 federal declaration records, while Forest County has 12. The gap is 35% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
49 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Forest County, PA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
9/30
12 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.6x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
8/25
12 declarations (0.6x state county average of 19)
Major Disaster Share High
17/25
8 of 12 declarations are major disasters (67%)
Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20
6 different disaster types declared in Forest County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Pennsylvania Avg
-35%
State avg: 18.6
vs. National Avg
-42%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.3
Over 48 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Forest County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
67%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
20
Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Forest County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 37 times per year |
| Landslide | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Hurricane | Very Low | roughly once every 32 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 1,795 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 1.9 times per year |
| Tornado | Very Low | roughly once every 8 years |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | an average of 18 times per year |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 2 years |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 28,067 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.5 modeled event-days per year |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 1.8 times per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Hurricane 4
Biological 2
Severe Storm 2
Flood 2
Snowstorm 1
Tornado 1
What Hurricane declarations mean here
Hurricane is the most frequent declaration type on Forest County's federal record, 33% of its declarations. Atlantic tropical systems run on a defined season, 1 June to 30 November, with most activity concentrated between August and October; Pacific and territorial basins run on their own calendars. A single named storm routinely produces one declaration number covering a long corridor of counties at once, well inland as well as on the coast, which is why an affected county's count can jump by several in one year without several separate events having occurred.
One practical distinction matters when reading these records: a tropical declaration usually bundles wind, storm surge and inland rainfall flooding under a single incident, but the insurance behind them is split. Wind damage falls to property insurers, while flood and surge damage is covered only under a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy. That is why a county can show heavy declaration activity and a comparatively small NFIP claims record, or the reverse.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 8 66.7%
of all 12 declarations
Emergency - 4 33.3%
of all 12 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2013 | 2 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 2 | |
| 2003 | 1 | |
| 1996 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 1 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 12 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 12 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4506 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-30 |
| 3441 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4099 | HURRICANE SANDY | DR | Hurricane | 2013-01-10 |
| 3356 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 3235 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1555 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-09-19 |
| 1557 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-19 |
| 1485 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2003-08-23 |
| 1093 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1996-01-21 |
| 3105 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-16 |
| 737 | SEVERE STORMS, HIGH WINDS & TORNADOES | DR | Tornado | 1985-06-03 |
| 340 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Pennsylvania
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Forest County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 9,976 | 18 | 114 | $115.5M |
| Flash Flood | 2,288 | 23 | 8 | $463.2M |
| Winter Weather | 1,670 | 23 | 268 | $566.0K |
| Hail | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | $2.6M |
| Winter Storm | 881 | 14 | 17 | $2.9M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
14
Total Paid
$193.6K
Avg Per Claim
$13.8K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Very Low
Score: 19.9/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$5.0M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Relatively Low
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Lightning Relatively High
Landslide Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Tornado Very Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Hail Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning
Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.
Worth noting for Forest County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Hurricane. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Forest County's closest FEMA peer: Bartholomew County, IN
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Forest County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Forest County shows 12 FEMA declarations, led by Hurricane.
Similar Major-disaster share
Forest County: 8 of 12 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Forest County: NRI composite 19.9 (Very Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Forest County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Most disaster-prone counties
With 12 FEMA declarations, Forest County sits in the high-volume declaration band - see how that count ranks against other U.S. counties.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Forest County?
The most common disaster type in Forest County is Hurricane, with 4 declarations. Other disaster types include Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Flood (2).
How does Forest County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Pennsylvania average?
The typical Pennsylvania county has 18.6 FEMA declaration records; Forest County has 12, or 35% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 42% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Forest County received?
Forest County has received 8 major disaster declarations, representing 67% of all 12 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Forest County filed?
Forest County has 14 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $193.6K in payments, with an average of $13.8K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Forest County?
No. In Forest County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $3.8M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Forest County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Forest County was 2004, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Forest County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Forest County, Pennsylvania has an overall risk score of 19.9 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very High and community resilience is Relatively Low. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $5.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Forest County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Forest County is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Landslide (Very Low) and Hurricane (Very Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 37 times per year, drawn from 23,810 historical events on record. These scores are based on FEMA's analysis of historical event frequency, exposed assets, and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Forest County
Against a Pennsylvania county mean of 19 declarations, Forest County, PA records 12, or 35% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (8 of 12) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Pennsylvania overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 14% of recorded county totals, but its own Pennsylvania benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.