FEMA Records
14
Low volume
Pennsylvania · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index
Jefferson County, PA
14 FEMA disaster declarations (1972-2020), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Relatively Low. Most common hazard: Flood.
- 14
- FEMA declarations
- 9
- Major disasters
- 58
- NRI risk · Relatively Low
- Flood
- Top hazard
The verdict
Jefferson County has a nationally busy FEMA history: 14 declarations, more than 20% of counties in this registry. But the state comparison tempers that reading: the total is 25% below the Pennsylvania county mean. FEMA's separate National Risk Index places the county in the riskiest 42%; that score models loss and vulnerability rather than counting declarations.
- Riskiest 42%
- of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
- Relatively Low
- FEMA National Risk Index rating
- 14
- FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
- 371
- NFIP flood insurance claims filed
FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.
How does Jefferson County compare?
Jefferson County vs. all counties in this dataset
FEMA disaster declarations, all-time
14 20th percentile higher than 20% of 3,266 counties
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03
Jefferson County's FEMA Risk Index score
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Pennsylvania county average
Which hazard drives modeled loss here?
FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Jefferson County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $11.2M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Lightning carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.
What does Jefferson County's hazard record show?
Reading the federal records together
The NFIP claims register shows a middle-volume loss record here: 371 paid claims, totaling $7.7M. PlainHazard uses 50-499 claims for this descriptive band; FEMA does not publish it as a safety or coverage category. The $20.8K average describes payments on recorded claims only, leaving uninsured damage and properties without a claim outside the measure.
Start with the state benchmark: a Pennsylvania county averages 18.6 federal declaration records, while Jefferson County has 14. The gap is 25% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.
FEMA National Risk Index
This county carries a high composite score on FEMA's National Risk Index, 57.9/100, rated Relatively Low. Its Expected Annual Loss rating is Very Low (roughly $14.0M in annualized losses), and a Very High social-vulnerability profile combined with Relatively High community resilience shapes how much of that raw exposure becomes realized harm. Of the 18 hazards FEMA models, Lightning stands out as the sharpest exposure here, rated Relatively High. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at an average of 38 times per year here, based on 111,587 historical events on record.
Declaration frequency
Nationally, Jefferson County's 14 FEMA records form a high-volume history; within Pennsylvania, however, the count is 25% below the county mean. 9 entries carry the Major Disaster classification. The largest incident group is Flood, appearing 5 times. The full 48-year record averages 0.3 declarations annually. A DR label alone does not say whether Individual Assistance, Public Assistance, or both followed.
48 /100
Historical Activity Index
Moderate historical activity
Jefferson County, PA · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records
This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology
FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Moderate
10/30
14 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.7x national county average)
County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25
14 declarations (0.8x state county average of 19)
Major Disaster Share High
16/25
9 of 14 declarations are major disasters (64%)
Hazard Diversity High
13/20
5 different disaster types declared in Jefferson County
Historical Declaration Activity
Activity Band
High
vs. Pennsylvania Avg
-25%
State avg: 18.6
vs. National Avg
-32%
National avg: 20.7
Avg Per Year
0.3
Over 48 years
FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Jefferson County
How to read this radar
Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.
Major Disaster share
64%
Major-heavy
NRI risk score
58
Relatively Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release
How often does each hazard strike Jefferson County?
FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.
| Hazard | NRI Risk Rating | Recurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | an average of 38 times per year |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | an average of 16 times per year |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | roughly once every 1 years |
| Riverine Flooding | Relatively Moderate | an average of 2 times per year |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | roughly once every 28 years |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | an average of 2.3 times per year |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | an average of 3.8 times per year |
| Earthquake | Very Low | roughly once every 2,421 years |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | roughly once every 5 years |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | roughly once every 3 years |
| Hail | Very Low | an average of 2 times per year |
| Wildfire | Very Low | roughly once every 14,352 years |
| Avalanche | Very Low | roughly once every 100 years |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.5 modeled event-days per year |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release
Disaster Types
Flood 5
Hurricane 3
Biological 2
Severe Storm 2
Snowstorm 2
What Flood declarations mean here
Flood is the most frequent declaration type on Jefferson County's record, 36% of its declarations. Federal flood declarations cover two mechanisms that behave very differently: riverine flooding, which builds over days as a watershed drains and is usually forecast well in advance, and flash flooding, which can arrive in under an hour from rainfall that fell somewhere upstream.
Flood is also the one hazard class where a second federal dataset exists for the same events. The National Flood Insurance Program records what was actually paid on insured losses, so it measures a narrower thing than the declaration count: uninsured damage, and flooding outside mapped special flood hazard areas, never enters it. Reading the two together is more informative than either alone.
Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.
Declaration Types
What DR / EM / FM mean
FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).
Major Disaster - 9 64.3%
of all 14 declarations
Emergency - 5 35.7%
of all 14 declarations
FEMA Declarations Timeline
| Year | Declarations | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | |
| 2014 | 1 | |
| 2013 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 2 | |
| 1993 | 1 | |
| 1981 | 1 | |
| 1977 | 2 | |
| 1972 | 1 | |
Disaster Declarations
How the 14 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.
Download these 14 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.
| DR# | Title | Type | Incident | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4506 | COVID-19 PANDEMIC | DR | Biological | 2020-03-30 |
| 3441 | COVID-19 | EM | Biological | 2020-03-13 |
| 4149 | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING | DR | Severe Storm | 2013-10-01 |
| 3356 | HURRICANE SANDY | EM | Hurricane | 2012-10-29 |
| 3235 | HURRICANE KATRINA | EM | Hurricane | 2005-09-10 |
| 1555 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES | DR | Severe Storm | 2004-09-19 |
| 1557 | TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN | DR | Hurricane | 2004-09-19 |
| 1130 | SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND TORNADOES | DR | Flood | 1996-07-26 |
| 1093 | SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1996-01-21 |
| 3105 | SEVERE SNOWFALL & WINTER STORM | EM | Snowstorm | 1993-03-16 |
| 641 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1981-06-15 |
| 537 | SEVERE STORMS & FLOODING | DR | Flood | 1977-07-21 |
| 3026 | SNOWSTORMS | EM | Snowstorm | 1977-01-29 |
| 340 | TROPICAL STORM AGNES | DR | Flood | 1972-06-23 |
Storm Events in Pennsylvania
Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Jefferson County.
| Storm Type | Events | Fatalities | Injuries | Property Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 9,976 | 18 | 114 | $115.5M |
| Flash Flood | 2,288 | 23 | 8 | $463.2M |
| Winter Weather | 1,670 | 23 | 268 | $566.0K |
| Hail | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | $2.6M |
| Winter Storm | 881 | 14 | 17 | $2.9M |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025
NFIP Flood Insurance Claims
Total Claims
371
Total Paid
$7.7M
Avg Per Claim
$20.8K
Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data
FEMA National Risk Index
Overall Risk
Relatively Low
Score: 57.9/100
Expected Annual Loss
Very Low
$14.0M/year
Social Vulnerability
Very High
Community Resilience
Relatively High
Hazard Risk Breakdown
Lightning Relatively High
Winter Weather Relatively Moderate
Landslide Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Relatively Moderate
Hurricane Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Tornado Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Hail Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Drought No Rating
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri
The model's sharpest exposure here: Lightning
Lightning is modeled as a high-frequency, low-per-event hazard: strike counts are large, but each strike affects a very small area. Its aggregate cost accumulates through structure fires, electrical and electronic damage, and it is one of the few hazards whose risk is essentially continuous through the season rather than episodic.
Worth noting for Jefferson County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Lightning carries the highest modeled rating (Relatively High), while the county's declaration history is led by Flood. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.
National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.
Data-matched county comparisons
Jefferson County's closest FEMA peer: Hancock County, OH
Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Jefferson County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.
Closest declaration profiles
Jefferson County shows 14 FEMA declarations, led by Flood.
Similar Major-disaster share
Jefferson County: 9 of 14 of its declarations are Major.
Similar modeled NRI score
Jefferson County: NRI composite 57.9 (Relatively Low).
How these peers are chosen
Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.
Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Jefferson County - capture-dated entries only.
Further reading for this county
Understanding disaster data
Jefferson County's NFIP claims file (371 claims) and FEMA declaration history measure different federal records - this guide separates them from modeled NRI risk.
More PlainHazard guides
- Most disaster-prone counties - U.S. counties ranked by FEMA declaration totals.
- Understanding disaster data - declarations vs storm events vs NRI scores.
- Preparing for natural disasters - household checklist (not county-specific advice).
Related
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most common disaster type in Jefferson County?
The most common disaster type in Jefferson County is Flood, with 5 declarations. Other disaster types include Hurricane (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
How does Jefferson County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Pennsylvania average?
The typical Pennsylvania county has 18.6 FEMA declaration records; Jefferson County has 14, or 25% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 32% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Jefferson County received?
Jefferson County has received 9 major disaster declarations, representing 64% of all 14 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Jefferson County filed?
Jefferson County has 371 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $7.7M in payments, with an average of $20.8K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Jefferson County?
No. In Jefferson County, Lightning has the highest National Risk Index rating (Relatively High), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $11.2M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Jefferson County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Jefferson County was 1977, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1972 to 2020.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Jefferson County, Pennsylvania has an overall risk score of 57.9 out of 100 (Relatively Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very High and community resilience is Relatively High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $14.0M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Jefferson County?
The top hazard flagged by FEMA's NRI for Jefferson County is Lightning (risk rating: Relatively High). Other significant hazards include Winter Weather (Relatively Moderate) and Landslide (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts lightning here at an average of 38 times per year, drawn from 111,587 historical events on record. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology
Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.
Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.
Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.
This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.
What this means for Jefferson County
Against a Pennsylvania county mean of 19 declarations, Jefferson County, PA records 14, or 25% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as high activity.
- Major Disaster is the largest group (9 of 14) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Pennsylvania overview
- Nationally the county exceeds 20% of recorded county totals, but its own Pennsylvania benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
- Use the data guide to separate this mid-volume insurance-claims file from declaration counts and modeled NRI risk. Disaster-data guide
A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.
PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.
All federal data sources used on this page
- FEMA OpenFEMA, Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 - all federally-declared disasters for this county. fema.gov/openfema/disaster-declarations
- FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) - per-county per-hazard risk ratings and expected annual loss. hazards.fema.gov/nri
- NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - state-level storm/severe-weather event records, 2015-2025. ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial
Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.