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Michigan · FEMA + NOAA + National Risk Index

Mackinac County, MI

7 FEMA disaster declarations (1977-2025), with a FEMA National Risk Index rating of Very Low. Most common hazard: Biological.

7
FEMA declarations
3
Major disasters
9
NRI risk · Very Low
Biological
Top hazard

The verdict

Start with the local benchmark for Mackinac County: 7 FEMA declaration records are 30% below the Michigan county mean, even though the count is higher than 4% of counties in the national registry. On FEMA's distinct National Risk Index model, which combines expected loss with vulnerability and resilience, the county ranks safer than 9%.

Safer than 9%
of U.S. counties for FEMA National Risk Index score
Very Low
FEMA National Risk Index rating
7
FEMA declarations vs 21 national county avg
6
NFIP flood insurance claims filed

FEMA's National Risk Index and its declaration registry are separate measures. This county's registry includes Major Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) records; an EM authorizes a narrower set of federal assistance than a DR.

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How does Mackinac County compare?

Mackinac County vs. all counties in this dataset

FEMA disaster declarations, all-time

7 4th percentile higher than 4% of 3,266 counties

This county 0 90 all U.S. counties FEMA tracks, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more counties. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · 2026-08-03

Mackinac County's FEMA Risk Index score

FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Michigan county average

0/100100/100Michigan avg50/1009.1/100
FEMA National Risk Index composite score vs. the Michigan county average

Which hazard drives modeled loss here?

FEMA's modeled annual dollar loss for Mackinac County is led by Riverine Flooding (about $2.5M Expected Annual Loss, Historical Loss Ratio Relatively Moderate), while Landslide carries the highest National Risk Index rating (Very Low). EAL and risk score use different inputs; they need not agree.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - Expected Annual Loss vs composite risk rating by hazard.

What does Mackinac County's hazard record show?

Declaration frequency

The state comparison is the clearest context for Mackinac County's moderate federal record. Its 7 declarations sit 30% below the Michigan county mean, with 3 Major Disaster entries among them. 2 records concern Biological, the file's most frequent incident type. Spread across 48 years, the registry rate is 0.1 per year. FEMA reports authorized programs separately from the DR, EM, and FM codes.

FEMA National Risk Index

FEMA's National Risk Index places this county in the low end of the national distribution, composite score 9.1/100 (Very Low). Expected Annual Loss is rated Very Low (roughly $3.3M in annualized losses). Two modifiers shape how that exposure becomes real-world harm here: social vulnerability (Very High) and community resilience (Very High). Even the county's top-rated hazard, Landslide, only reaches Very Low on FEMA's scale, none of the 18 modeled hazards stand out here. FEMA's modeled frequency puts that hazard at roughly once every 6 years here.

Reading the federal records together

This county has a small entry in FEMA's NFIP paid-claims table: 6 claims and $8.9K paid in total. PlainHazard calls 1-49 claims a light registry record, a label for this dataset rather than a finding that flood exposure is low. A short claims history can also reflect insurance take-up, the period covered, or losses that were never insured.

Start with the state benchmark: a Michigan county averages 10.0 federal declaration records, while Mackinac County has 7. The gap is 30% below that mean. Fewer entries indicate a quieter history of recorded federal actions, not immunity from a hazard and not a prediction about what happens next.

40 /100

Historical Activity Index

Moderate historical activity

Mackinac County, MI · PlainHazard-derived composite from federal records

This 0–100 index is an explicit PlainHazard composite from FEMA declaration history only on the county surface (this DB has no county-level NOAA damage row) . It is not FEMA's National Risk Index, not a forecast, and not a safety, insurance, or preparedness rating. Open the calculator · Methodology

FEMA Declarations (1953–present) Low
5/30

7 OpenFEMA declarations, full ingest window (0.3x national county average)

County Disaster Density Moderate
9/25

7 declarations (0.7x state county average of 10)

Major Disaster Share Moderate
11/25

3 of 7 declarations are major disasters (43%)

Hazard Diversity Very High
15/20

6 different disaster types declared in Mackinac County

Historical Declaration Activity

Activity Band

Moderate

vs. Michigan Avg

-30%

State avg: 10.0

vs. National Avg

-66%

National avg: 20.7

Avg Per Year

0.1

Over 48 years

FEMA NRI 8-hazard radar - Mackinac County

Mackinac County NRI risk profile 8-axis FEMA National Risk Index radar showing per-hazard scores for Earthquake 8, Flood 8, Hurricane 8, Tornado 8, Wildfire 8, Drought 0, Heat Wave 8, Winter Storm 25. The simple mean of these eight displayed scores is 9 of 100. Earthquake Flood Hurricane Tornado Wildfire Drought Heat Wave Winter Storm 9 8-hazard mean
Mackinac County NRI risk profile FIPS 26097 · displayed-hazard mean 9/100
How to read this radar

Each axis: NRI risk rating (Very Low-Very High) on a 0-100 scale. Rounder = broad exposure; spiky = one or two hazards dominate.

FEMA Records

7

Low volume

Major Disaster share

43%

Mixed major share

NRI risk score

9

Very Low

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Per-county per-hazard ratings, December 2025 release

How often does each hazard strike Mackinac County?

FEMA's National Risk Index models a historical event count and an annualized frequency for each hazard type. Most hazards are expressed as modeled occurrences per year; FEMA expresses drought and heat-wave frequency as event-days per year. These modeled frequencies are not forecasts.

Hazard NRI Risk Rating Recurrence
Landslide Very Low roughly once every 6 years
Wildfire Very Low roughly once every 1,097 years
Cold Wave Relatively Low an average of 2.2 times per year
Coastal Flooding Very Low roughly once every 76 years
Lightning Relatively Low an average of 23 times per year
Riverine Flooding Very Low roughly once every 6 years
Hurricane Very Low roughly once every 100 years
Winter Weather Very Low an average of 23 times per year
Hail Very Low roughly once every 4 years
Tornado Very Low roughly once every 12 years
Earthquake Very Low roughly once every 6,494 years
Strong Wind Very Low roughly once every 3 years
Heat Wave Very Low 0.1 modeled event-days per year
Ice Storm Very Low roughly once every 67 years

Source: FEMA National Risk Index Modeled annualized frequency; drought and heat wave use event-days/year, December 2025 release

Disaster Types

Biological 2
Severe Ice Storm 1
Hurricane 1
Freezing 1
Snowstorm 1
Drought 1

What Biological declarations mean here

Biological is the most frequent declaration type on Mackinac County's record, 29% of its declarations. In practice this category is dominated by the COVID-19 declarations of 2020, which were issued across every US state and territory rather than in response to any local hazard event.

This has a direct consequence for how Mackinac County's number should be read. Because those declarations reached essentially every county in the country, they raise every county's total by a similar amount and tell you nothing about local hazard exposure. A county whose record is led by Biological declarations is, in most cases, a county with a genuinely quiet weather-hazard history, the pandemic records are simply the largest thing in an otherwise short list.

Declaration counts describe past federal action. They are a record of what was declared, not a forecast of future hazard probability.

Declaration Types

What DR / EM / FM mean

FEMA categorizes declarations as Major Disasters (DR), Emergencies (EM), or Fire Management Assistance (FM).

Emergency - 4 57.1%

of all 7 declarations

Major Disaster - 3 42.9%

of all 7 declarations

FEMA Declarations Timeline

Year Declarations
2025 1
2020 2
2005 1
1994 1
1978 1
1977 1

Disaster Declarations

How the 7 FEMA declarations break into federal action codes (DR / EM / FM). Same DISTINCT grain as the table below.

Download these 7 declarations as CSV . FEMA source data is public domain; our derived presentation is CC0.

DR# Title Type Incident Date
4880 SEVERE WINTER STORM DR Severe Ice Storm 2025-07-22
4494 COVID-19 PANDEMIC DR Biological 2020-03-27
3455 COVID-19 EM Biological 2020-03-13
3225 HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION EM Hurricane 2005-09-07
1028 SEVERE DEEP FREEZE DR Freezing 1994-05-10
3057 BLIZZARDS & SNOWSTORMS EM Snowstorm 1978-01-27
3035 DROUGHT EM Drought 1977-03-02

Storm Events in Michigan

Statewide NOAA context only. PlainHazard does not currently attribute these state totals to Mackinac County.

Storm Type Events Fatalities Injuries Property Damage
Thunderstorm Wind 3,010 10 18 $173.8M
Winter Storm 1,486 3 11 $41.8M
Winter Weather 1,254 21 38 $892.0K
Hail 962 0 0 $77.1M
High Wind 389 3 2 $668.9M

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database State-level aggregated data, 2015-2025

NFIP Flood Insurance Claims

Total Claims

6

Total Paid

$8.9K

Avg Per Claim

$1.5K

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA Claims Data

FEMA National Risk Index

Overall Risk

Very Low

Score: 9.1/100

Expected Annual Loss

Very Low

$3.3M/year

Social Vulnerability

Very High

Community Resilience

Very High

Hazard Risk Breakdown

Landslide Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Cold Wave Relatively Low
Coastal Flooding Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Riverine Flooding Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Hail Very Low
Tornado Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Strong Wind Very Low
Heat Wave Very Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Drought No Rating

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) Ratings reflect relative scores among all US counties. Data: hazards.fema.gov/nri

The model's sharpest exposure here: Landslide

Landslide risk is a function of slope, soil and water, so it is usually a SECOND-ORDER hazard: it is triggered by the rainfall, snowmelt, wildfire burn scars or seismic shaking that came first. That is why a county can carry high landslide exposure whose realized damage is recorded under a flood or storm declaration instead.

Worth noting for Mackinac County: the model and the federal record do NOT point at the same hazard. Landslide carries the highest modeled rating (Very Low), while the county's declaration history is led by Biological. That is not a contradiction, the two measure genuinely different things. Declarations record federal ACTION, which requires damage costly enough to exceed state and local capacity; the Risk Index models EXPECTED annual loss across all 18 hazards whether or not any declaration ever followed. A hazard can be the county's largest modeled exposure and never once have driven a declaration.

National Risk Index ratings are modeled estimates of expected annual loss, not predictions of what will happen in any given year.

Data-matched county comparisons

Mackinac County's closest FEMA peer: Lea County, NM

Comparisons use published FEMA declaration fields plus the National Risk Index composite for Mackinac County. Record similarity, not a safety rating.

How these peers are chosen

Cohort: Published U.S. county equivalents outside the source state or territory. Each metric keeps six ETL candidates; three unique destinations are shown after de-duplicating across axes. Declaration-volume ranking combines count and Major-disaster share and prefers a different leading incident type; Major-share ranks the Major fraction adjusted for volume; NRI ranks the modeled composite score only.

Retained FEMA snapshot feed for Mackinac County - capture-dated entries only.

Further reading for this county

Understanding disaster data

FEMA's National Risk Index flags Landslide as the top modeled exposure here (Very Low); the guide explains how that model differs from declaration counts.
More PlainHazard guides

Related

Michigan State Profile All Counties Most Disasters All Hazard Types

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most common disaster type in Mackinac County?
The most common disaster type in Mackinac County is Biological, with 2 declarations. Other disaster types include Severe Ice Storm (1), Hurricane (1), Freezing (1).
How does Mackinac County's FEMA declaration record compare with the Michigan average?
The typical Michigan county has 10.0 FEMA declaration records; Mackinac County has 7, or 30% fewer. Against the national county mean of 20.7, this county's total is 66% lower. The comparison is historical and says nothing about the probability of a future event.
How many major FEMA disaster declarations has Mackinac County received?
Mackinac County has received 3 major disaster declarations, representing 43% of all 7 disaster declarations.
How many flood insurance claims has Mackinac County filed?
Mackinac County has 6 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims totaling $8.9K in payments, with an average of $1.5K per claim.
Does FEMA's top risk-rated hazard match the highest Expected Annual Loss in Mackinac County?
No. In Mackinac County, Landslide has the highest National Risk Index rating (Very Low), while Riverine Flooding leads Expected Annual Loss at about $2.5M. FEMA's risk score and dollar-loss model use different inputs, so the leaders often differ.
What was the worst year for disasters in Mackinac County?
The most active year for disaster declarations in Mackinac County was 2020, with 2 declarations. The county has FEMA disaster data spanning 1977 to 2025.
What is the FEMA National Risk Index score for Mackinac County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, Mackinac County, Michigan has an overall risk score of 9.1 out of 100 (Very Low). The county's social vulnerability rating is Very High and community resilience is Very High. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) score is Very Low, representing $3.3M in annualized losses.
Which natural hazard poses the greatest risk to Mackinac County?
FEMA's NRI data points to Mackinac County as of the latest release is Landslide (risk rating: Very Low). Other significant hazards include Wildfire (Very Low) and Cold Wave (Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled event frequency puts landslide here at roughly once every 6 years. The underlying methodology weighs historical event frequency against exposed assets and community vulnerability.
Data Sources & Methodology

Disaster declaration data comes from the FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 API, which includes all federally declared disasters, emergencies, and fire management assistance grants.

Storm event data is sourced from the NOAA Storm Events Database (2015-2025), which tracks significant weather events including thunderstorms, tornadoes, floods, and winter storms.

Flood insurance data comes from the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) OpenFEMA claims dataset.

This data is provided for informational purposes only. FEMA disaster declarations represent federal response actions and may not capture all local emergencies or weather events.

What this means for Mackinac County

Against a Michigan county mean of 10 declarations, Mackinac County, MI records 7, or 30% fewer. PlainHazard classifies that historical total as moderate activity.

  • Emergency is the largest group (4 of 7) in a declaration history that remains below its state benchmark; frequency here is not a forecast. Michigan overview
  • Nationally the county exceeds 4% of recorded county totals, but its own Michigan benchmark is higher. The ranking keeps those two contexts separate. Most-disaster rankings
  • A short NFIP claims file cannot establish low flood exposure; the data guide explains the limits of each federal measure. Disaster-data guide

A below-average federal record is not a safety guarantee. Use National Weather Service alerts and local emergency-management notices for present conditions, not this historical comparison.

PlainHazard derives this profile from FEMA's Disaster Declarations Summaries and National Risk Index data. The declaration comparison covers 3,266 U.S. counties and county equivalents in this database, refreshed as of 2026-08-03. Read our methodology - how this data is sourced, computed, and verified.

All federal data sources used on this page
Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainHazard Editorial

Verify with FEMA → · Verify with FEMA NRI → · Verify with NOAA →

Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.