Do more storms mean more disaster declarations?
NOAA NCEI Storm Events and FEMA OpenFEMA declarations, 1996 to 2026-06-30
No, not across the country. Across 3,080 U.S. counties, the number of days with a NOAA storm record since 1996 and the number of FEMA disaster declarations naming the county since 1996 have a Spearman rank correlation of -0.00; compared only with other counties in the same state, they move together only weakly (average 0.13, across 40 states with 20 or more counties). Many of the stormiest counties are rarely declared, and some counties with few storm records are declared often.
By PlainHazard Editorial · Updated · How this was measured
Stormy counties with few declarations
| County | Storm days | Declarations |
|---|---|---|
| Garfield County, CO | 1,873 | 8 |
| Albany County, WY | 1,675 | 8 |
| Mesa County, CO | 1,572 | 4 |
| Routt County, CO | 1,502 | 2 |
| Moffat County, CO | 1,470 | 2 |
| Laramie County, WY | 1,460 | 1 |
| Carbon County, WY | 1,407 | 3 |
| Rio Blanco County, CO | 1,391 | 4 |
| Gunnison County, CO | 1,317 | 4 |
| Pima County, AZ | 1,211 | 5 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2).
Counties declared often with few storm records
| County | Storm days | Declarations |
|---|---|---|
| St. Martin Parish, LA | 151 | 40 |
| Assumption Parish, LA | 115 | 39 |
| Dixie County, FL | 140 | 38 |
| Levy County, FL | 155 | 38 |
| St. Bernard Parish, LA | 157 | 37 |
| West Feliciana Parish, LA | 135 | 37 |
| Plaquemines Parish, LA | 157 | 37 |
| St. John the Baptist Parish, LA | 141 | 36 |
| St. James Parish, LA | 127 | 35 |
| Liberty County, FL | 156 | 35 |
Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2).
How this was measured
For each county of 100 square miles or more (3,080 counties): the days from 1996 (every type recorded) with at least one NOAA storm record for it (days, not records: a storm filed for several forecast zones adds several records but one day) and the FEMA disaster numbers since 1996 that name it, leaving out the 2020 COVID-19 (Biological) declarations. The agreement is measured with Spearman's rank correlation, which compares the order of counties on each measure (1 = identical order, 0 = no relation). Medians: 336 storm days and 14 declarations.
Sources
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database through June 30, 2026; FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2) through October 2, 2026.
Limits
Storm counts grow with county size and with the density of observers; declarations depend on damage reaching state and federal thresholds and on statewide declarations that name every county. Neither is a risk score.