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National comparison · FEMA National Risk Index

Safest states from natural disasters

North Dakota ranks lowest among states with at least 5 scored counties, averaging FEMA National Risk Index scores across its 53 counties. Lower scores rank first; the 5-county floor keeps single-county entities from taking a state-average superlative.

North Dakota
Lowest average risk
22.2 / 100
Average county NRI score
53
Counties scored

North Dakota is the safest state from natural disasters on FEMA's National Risk Index (22.2/100 average county score)

According to FEMA's National Risk Index, PlainHazard ranks states by the average of county-level risk scores. Among 48 states with at least 5 scored counties, North Dakota posts the lowest average (53 counties scored). Lower scores rank first; single-county entities stay listed but do not take the state-average superlative.

  • 22.2/100 North Dakota avg NRI
  • 53 counties scored
  • 48 states meeting floor

How wide is the gap

North Dakota posts the lowest average county FEMA risk score at 22.2/100, while New Jersey sits at the other end at 90.8/100, roughly 4.1x higher, against a 53.5 median across the 48 comparable states. Both figures average FEMA's county-level National Risk Index within the state, so a large state with a few very high-risk counties can still average lower than a small state with uniformly moderate risk.

22.2
North Dakota's average risk score, the lowest in this ranking
90.8
New Jersey's average risk score, the highest
53.5
median across the 48 states meeting the 5-county floor

A state average can mask county-level variation; see the per-state detail page for the county breakdown. Listed but excluded from the highest/lowest verdict for having under 5 scored counties: Delaware (3), District of Columbia (1).

What this ranking measures

FEMA publishes its National Risk Index at the county level. This page averages those county scores within each state and ranks the lower averages first. It is a comparison of FEMA's modeled risk metric, not a forecast and not a guarantee that every county or hazard in a state is low risk.

Lowest average county NRI scores (safer end)

Each row links to the state profile, crawlable ranking, not an image-only chart

  1. 1
    North Dakota 22.2 avg NRI
    53 counties scored
  2. 2
    Nebraska 25.8 avg NRI
    93 counties scored
  3. 3
    South Dakota 26.5 avg NRI
    65 counties scored
  4. 4
    Kansas 29.9 avg NRI
    105 counties scored
  5. 5
    Virginia 33.3 avg NRI
    133 counties scored
  6. 6
    Montana 33.3 avg NRI
    56 counties scored
  7. 7
    Alaska 35.6 avg NRI
    28 counties scored
  8. 8
    Utah 36.2 avg NRI
    29 counties scored
  9. 9
    Vermont 36.4 avg NRI
    14 counties scored
  10. 10
    Wyoming 37.9 avg NRI
    23 counties scored
  11. 11
    Idaho 38.5 avg NRI
    44 counties scored
  12. 12
    Georgia 39.5 avg NRI
    159 counties scored

Source FEMA National Risk Index · 2026-08-25

The bar to make this lowest-12 list

Distribution of average county National Risk Index scores

39.5 Among the most affordable more affordable than 75% of 48 states

#12 cutoff 0 95 all states in this ranking, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more states. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA National Risk Index · 2026-08-25

Which states have the highest natural disaster risk?

The worst states for natural disasters in this comparison are the states with the highest average county FEMA National Risk Index score, led by New Jersey. A higher average score reflects greater modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and lower community resilience across the state's counties, not a higher count of past disaster declarations.

  1. 1. New Jersey 90.8 / 100
  2. 2. California 88.7 / 100
  3. 3. Arizona 84.5 / 100
  4. 4. Massachusetts 78.8 / 100
  5. 5. Florida 75.7 / 100
  6. 6. Hawaii 75.0 / 100
  7. 7. South Carolina 70.7 / 100
  8. 8. Washington 70.0 / 100
  9. 9. New Hampshire 69.9 / 100
  10. 10. New York 69.4 / 100

Full safest-states ranking

Lower average county scores rank first. The last column counts counties FEMA rates Relatively High or Very High.

#StateAverage NRI ScoreHigh-Risk Counties
1North DakotaND22.2 / 1000
2NebraskaNE25.8 / 1001
3South DakotaSD26.5 / 1000
4KansasKS29.9 / 1002
5VirginiaVA33.3 / 1001
6MontanaMT33.3 / 1000
7AlaskaAK35.6 / 1001
8UtahUT36.2 / 1002
9VermontVT36.4 / 1000
10WyomingWY37.9 / 1000
11IdahoID38.5 / 1000
12GeorgiaGA39.5 / 1004
13IowaIA39.7 / 1000
14ColoradoCO40.7 / 1002
15MinnesotaMN42.4 / 1002
16KentuckyKY44.2 / 1001
17IndianaIN45.5 / 1002
18NevadaNV46.2 / 1002
19TexasTX49.0 / 10016
20West VirginiaWV49.2 / 1001
21MichiganMI49.6 / 1003
22MissouriMO50.6 / 1003
23MississippiMS50.9 / 1001
24TennesseeTN52.5 / 1002
25IllinoisIL54.5 / 1006
26OhioOH55.0 / 1003
27OklahomaOK55.5 / 1002
28ArkansasAR55.5 / 1001
29Rhode IslandRI56.6 / 1000
30MaineME56.7 / 1000
31New MexicoNM58.9 / 1002
32WisconsinWI59.1 / 1001
33MarylandMD60.2 / 1001
34AlabamaAL61.5 / 1004
35LouisianaLA62.4 / 1007
36OregonOR63.4 / 1006
37North CarolinaNC66.7 / 1005
38PennsylvaniaPA67.4 / 1005
39New YorkNY69.4 / 1008
40New HampshireNH69.9 / 1000
41WashingtonWA70.0 / 1005
42South CarolinaSC70.7 / 1004
43HawaiiHI75.0 / 1002
44FloridaFL75.7 / 10021
45MassachusettsMA78.8 / 1002
46ArizonaAZ84.5 / 1003
47CaliforniaCA88.7 / 10031
48New JerseyNJ90.8 / 1009
49DelawareDE91.3 / 1001
50District of ColumbiaDC97.6 / 1001

What to do with this ranking

North Dakota has the lowest multi-county FEMA NRI average among comparable states (22.2 / 100), while New Jersey sits at the high end (90.8) - about 4.1× the safest average.

  • Open North Dakota's state profile for the county-level NRI spread behind the average. North Dakota profile
  • Compare the high-end average in New Jersey against declaration and storm-event rankings. New Jersey profile
  • Read how NRI scores are built before treating a state average as a local risk forecast. Risk-score guide

States with fewer than 5 scored counties are listed but excluded from the superlative. NRI averages are not a forecast. For current threats follow the National Weather Service and local officials; in an emergency call 911.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index County risk scores Scores are averaged across the counties represented for each state. Read the methodology before using this comparison for a local decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which US state is safest from natural disasters?
North Dakota has the lowest average county-level FEMA National Risk Index score, 22.2/100, among the 48 states with at least 5 scored counties -- meaning FEMA's own hazard-risk model rates its counties as facing the least combined natural-hazard risk. Single-county entities such as the District of Columbia are shown in the table but do not carry a state-average superlative, because one county is not a state average.
What is the risk gap between the safest and riskiest states?
New Jersey, the highest-risk state meeting the 5-county floor, has an average risk score roughly 4.1x higher than North Dakota's. The FEMA National Risk Index blends hazard likelihood, expected annual loss, and community resilience/vulnerability into a single county-level score, which this ranking averages up to the state level.
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Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. This ranking aggregates FEMA National Risk Index county scores. It labels the aggregation rather than presenting it as a forecast. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.