National comparison · FEMA National Risk Index
Safest states from natural disasters
North Dakota ranks lowest among states with at least 5 scored counties, averaging FEMA National Risk Index scores across its 53 counties. Lower scores rank first; the 5-county floor keeps single-county entities from taking a state-average superlative.
- North Dakota
- Lowest average risk
- 22.2 / 100
- Average county NRI score
- 53
- Counties scored
North Dakota is the safest state from natural disasters on FEMA's National Risk Index (22.2/100 average county score)
According to FEMA's National Risk Index, PlainHazard ranks states by the average of county-level risk scores. Among 48 states with at least 5 scored counties, North Dakota posts the lowest average (53 counties scored). Lower scores rank first; single-county entities stay listed but do not take the state-average superlative.
- 22.2/100 North Dakota avg NRI
- 53 counties scored
- 48 states meeting floor
How wide is the gap
North Dakota posts the lowest average county FEMA risk score at 22.2/100, while New Jersey sits at the other end at 90.8/100, roughly 4.1x higher, against a 53.5 median across the 48 comparable states. Both figures average FEMA's county-level National Risk Index within the state, so a large state with a few very high-risk counties can still average lower than a small state with uniformly moderate risk.
- 22.2
- North Dakota's average risk score, the lowest in this ranking
- 90.8
- New Jersey's average risk score, the highest
- 53.5
- median across the 48 states meeting the 5-county floor
A state average can mask county-level variation; see the per-state detail page for the county breakdown. Listed but excluded from the highest/lowest verdict for having under 5 scored counties: Delaware (3), District of Columbia (1).
What this ranking measures
FEMA publishes its National Risk Index at the county level. This page averages those county scores within each state and ranks the lower averages first. It is a comparison of FEMA's modeled risk metric, not a forecast and not a guarantee that every county or hazard in a state is low risk.
The bar to make this lowest-12 list
Distribution of average county National Risk Index scores
39.5 Among the most affordable more affordable than 75% of 48 states
Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more states. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source FEMA National Risk Index · 2026-08-03
Which states have the highest natural disaster risk?
The worst states for natural disasters in this comparison are the states with the highest average county FEMA National Risk Index score, led by New Jersey. A higher average score reflects greater modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and lower community resilience across the state's counties, not a higher count of past disaster declarations.
- 1. New Jersey 90.8 / 100
- 2. California 88.7 / 100
- 3. Arizona 84.5 / 100
- 4. Massachusetts 78.8 / 100
- 5. Florida 75.7 / 100
- 6. Hawaii 75.0 / 100
- 7. South Carolina 70.7 / 100
- 8. Washington 70.0 / 100
- 9. New Hampshire 69.9 / 100
- 10. New York 69.4 / 100
Full safest-states ranking
Lower average county scores rank first. The last column counts counties FEMA rates Relatively High or Very High.
| # | State | Average NRI Score | High-Risk Counties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Dakota ND | 22.2 / 100 | 0 |
| 2 | Nebraska NE | 25.8 / 100 | 1 |
| 3 | South Dakota SD | 26.5 / 100 | 0 |
| 4 | Kansas KS | 29.9 / 100 | 2 |
| 5 | Virginia VA | 33.3 / 100 | 1 |
| 6 | Montana MT | 33.3 / 100 | 0 |
| 7 | Alaska AK | 35.6 / 100 | 1 |
| 8 | Utah UT | 36.2 / 100 | 2 |
| 9 | Vermont VT | 36.4 / 100 | 0 |
| 10 | Wyoming WY | 37.9 / 100 | 0 |
| 11 | Idaho ID | 38.5 / 100 | 0 |
| 12 | Georgia GA | 39.5 / 100 | 4 |
| 13 | Iowa IA | 39.7 / 100 | 0 |
| 14 | Colorado CO | 40.7 / 100 | 2 |
| 15 | Minnesota MN | 42.4 / 100 | 2 |
| 16 | Kentucky KY | 44.2 / 100 | 1 |
| 17 | Indiana IN | 45.5 / 100 | 2 |
| 18 | Nevada NV | 46.2 / 100 | 2 |
| 19 | Texas TX | 49.0 / 100 | 16 |
| 20 | West Virginia WV | 49.2 / 100 | 1 |
| 21 | Michigan MI | 49.6 / 100 | 3 |
| 22 | Missouri MO | 50.6 / 100 | 3 |
| 23 | Mississippi MS | 50.9 / 100 | 1 |
| 24 | Tennessee TN | 52.5 / 100 | 2 |
| 25 | Illinois IL | 54.5 / 100 | 6 |
| 26 | Ohio OH | 55.0 / 100 | 3 |
| 27 | Oklahoma OK | 55.5 / 100 | 2 |
| 28 | Arkansas AR | 55.5 / 100 | 1 |
| 29 | Rhode Island RI | 56.6 / 100 | 0 |
| 30 | Maine ME | 56.7 / 100 | 0 |
| 31 | New Mexico NM | 58.9 / 100 | 2 |
| 32 | Wisconsin WI | 59.1 / 100 | 1 |
| 33 | Maryland MD | 60.2 / 100 | 1 |
| 34 | Alabama AL | 61.5 / 100 | 4 |
| 35 | Louisiana LA | 62.4 / 100 | 7 |
| 36 | Oregon OR | 63.4 / 100 | 6 |
| 37 | North Carolina NC | 66.7 / 100 | 5 |
| 38 | Pennsylvania PA | 67.4 / 100 | 5 |
| 39 | New York NY | 69.4 / 100 | 8 |
| 40 | New Hampshire NH | 69.9 / 100 | 0 |
| 41 | Washington WA | 70.0 / 100 | 5 |
| 42 | South Carolina SC | 70.7 / 100 | 4 |
| 43 | Hawaii HI | 75.0 / 100 | 2 |
| 44 | Florida FL | 75.7 / 100 | 21 |
| 45 | Massachusetts MA | 78.8 / 100 | 2 |
| 46 | Arizona AZ | 84.5 / 100 | 3 |
| 47 | California CA | 88.7 / 100 | 31 |
| 48 | New Jersey NJ | 90.8 / 100 | 9 |
| 49 | Delaware DE | 91.3 / 100 | 1 |
| 50 | District of Columbia DC | 97.6 / 100 | 1 |
What to do with this ranking
North Dakota has the lowest multi-county FEMA NRI average among comparable states (22.2 / 100), while New Jersey sits at the high end (90.8) - about 4.1× the safest average.
- Open North Dakota's state profile for the county-level NRI spread behind the average. North Dakota profile
- Compare the high-end average in New Jersey against declaration and storm-event rankings. New Jersey profile
- Read how NRI scores are built before treating a state average as a local risk forecast. Risk-score guide
States with fewer than 5 scored counties are listed but excluded from the superlative. NRI averages are not a forecast. For current threats follow the National Weather Service and local officials; in an emergency call 911.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index County risk scores Scores are averaged across the counties represented for each state. Read the methodology before using this comparison for a local decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which US state is safest from natural disasters?
What is the risk gap between the safest and riskiest states?
Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. This ranking aggregates FEMA National Risk Index county scores. It labels the aggregation rather than presenting it as a forecast. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.