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National comparison · FEMA National Risk Index

Safest states from natural disasters

North Dakota ranks lowest among states with at least 5 scored counties, averaging FEMA National Risk Index scores across its 53 counties. Lower scores rank first; the 5-county floor keeps single-county entities from taking a state-average superlative.

North Dakota
Lowest average risk
22.2 / 100
Average county NRI score
53
Counties scored

North Dakota is the safest state from natural disasters on FEMA's National Risk Index (22.2/100 average county score)

According to FEMA's National Risk Index, PlainHazard ranks states by the average of county-level risk scores. Among 48 states with at least 5 scored counties, North Dakota posts the lowest average (53 counties scored). Lower scores rank first; single-county entities stay listed but do not take the state-average superlative.

  • 22.2/100 North Dakota avg NRI
  • 53 counties scored
  • 48 states meeting floor

How wide is the gap

North Dakota posts the lowest average county FEMA risk score at 22.2/100, while New Jersey sits at the other end at 90.8/100, roughly 4.1x higher, against a 53.5 median across the 48 comparable states. Both figures average FEMA's county-level National Risk Index within the state, so a large state with a few very high-risk counties can still average lower than a small state with uniformly moderate risk.

22.2
North Dakota's average risk score, the lowest in this ranking
90.8
New Jersey's average risk score, the highest
53.5
median across the 48 states meeting the 5-county floor

A state average can mask county-level variation; see the per-state detail page for the county breakdown. Listed but excluded from the highest/lowest verdict for having under 5 scored counties: Delaware (3), District of Columbia (1).

What this ranking measures

FEMA publishes its National Risk Index at the county level. This page averages those county scores within each state and ranks the lower averages first. It is a comparison of FEMA's modeled risk metric, not a forecast and not a guarantee that every county or hazard in a state is low risk.

Lowest average county NRI scores (safer end)

Each row links to the state profile, crawlable ranking, not an image-only chart

  1. 1
    North Dakota 22.2 avg NRI
    53 counties scored
  2. 2
    Nebraska 25.8 avg NRI
    93 counties scored
  3. 3
    South Dakota 26.5 avg NRI
    65 counties scored
  4. 4
    Kansas 29.9 avg NRI
    105 counties scored
  5. 5
    Virginia 33.3 avg NRI
    133 counties scored
  6. 6
    Montana 33.3 avg NRI
    56 counties scored
  7. 7
    Alaska 35.6 avg NRI
    28 counties scored
  8. 8
    Utah 36.2 avg NRI
    29 counties scored
  9. 9
    Vermont 36.4 avg NRI
    14 counties scored
  10. 10
    Wyoming 37.9 avg NRI
    23 counties scored
  11. 11
    Idaho 38.5 avg NRI
    44 counties scored
  12. 12
    Georgia 39.5 avg NRI
    159 counties scored

Source FEMA National Risk Index · 2026-08-03

The bar to make this lowest-12 list

Distribution of average county National Risk Index scores

39.5 Among the most affordable more affordable than 75% of 48 states

#12 cutoff 0 95 all states in this ranking, bucketed by value

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more states. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source FEMA National Risk Index · 2026-08-03

Which states have the highest natural disaster risk?

The worst states for natural disasters in this comparison are the states with the highest average county FEMA National Risk Index score, led by New Jersey. A higher average score reflects greater modeled expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and lower community resilience across the state's counties, not a higher count of past disaster declarations.

  1. 1. New Jersey 90.8 / 100
  2. 2. California 88.7 / 100
  3. 3. Arizona 84.5 / 100
  4. 4. Massachusetts 78.8 / 100
  5. 5. Florida 75.7 / 100
  6. 6. Hawaii 75.0 / 100
  7. 7. South Carolina 70.7 / 100
  8. 8. Washington 70.0 / 100
  9. 9. New Hampshire 69.9 / 100
  10. 10. New York 69.4 / 100

Full safest-states ranking

Lower average county scores rank first. The last column counts counties FEMA rates Relatively High or Very High.

# State Average NRI ScoreHigh-Risk Counties
1 North Dakota ND 22.2 / 100 0
2 Nebraska NE 25.8 / 100 1
3 South Dakota SD 26.5 / 100 0
4 Kansas KS 29.9 / 100 2
5 Virginia VA 33.3 / 100 1
6 Montana MT 33.3 / 100 0
7 Alaska AK 35.6 / 100 1
8 Utah UT 36.2 / 100 2
9 Vermont VT 36.4 / 100 0
10 Wyoming WY 37.9 / 100 0
11 Idaho ID 38.5 / 100 0
12 Georgia GA 39.5 / 100 4
13 Iowa IA 39.7 / 100 0
14 Colorado CO 40.7 / 100 2
15 Minnesota MN 42.4 / 100 2
16 Kentucky KY 44.2 / 100 1
17 Indiana IN 45.5 / 100 2
18 Nevada NV 46.2 / 100 2
19 Texas TX 49.0 / 100 16
20 West Virginia WV 49.2 / 100 1
21 Michigan MI 49.6 / 100 3
22 Missouri MO 50.6 / 100 3
23 Mississippi MS 50.9 / 100 1
24 Tennessee TN 52.5 / 100 2
25 Illinois IL 54.5 / 100 6
26 Ohio OH 55.0 / 100 3
27 Oklahoma OK 55.5 / 100 2
28 Arkansas AR 55.5 / 100 1
29 Rhode Island RI 56.6 / 100 0
30 Maine ME 56.7 / 100 0
31 New Mexico NM 58.9 / 100 2
32 Wisconsin WI 59.1 / 100 1
33 Maryland MD 60.2 / 100 1
34 Alabama AL 61.5 / 100 4
35 Louisiana LA 62.4 / 100 7
36 Oregon OR 63.4 / 100 6
37 North Carolina NC 66.7 / 100 5
38 Pennsylvania PA 67.4 / 100 5
39 New York NY 69.4 / 100 8
40 New Hampshire NH 69.9 / 100 0
41 Washington WA 70.0 / 100 5
42 South Carolina SC 70.7 / 100 4
43 Hawaii HI 75.0 / 100 2
44 Florida FL 75.7 / 100 21
45 Massachusetts MA 78.8 / 100 2
46 Arizona AZ 84.5 / 100 3
47 California CA 88.7 / 100 31
48 New Jersey NJ 90.8 / 100 9
49 Delaware DE 91.3 / 100 1
50 District of Columbia DC 97.6 / 100 1

What to do with this ranking

North Dakota has the lowest multi-county FEMA NRI average among comparable states (22.2 / 100), while New Jersey sits at the high end (90.8) - about 4.1× the safest average.

  • Open North Dakota's state profile for the county-level NRI spread behind the average. North Dakota profile
  • Compare the high-end average in New Jersey against declaration and storm-event rankings. New Jersey profile
  • Read how NRI scores are built before treating a state average as a local risk forecast. Risk-score guide

States with fewer than 5 scored counties are listed but excluded from the superlative. NRI averages are not a forecast. For current threats follow the National Weather Service and local officials; in an emergency call 911.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index County risk scores Scores are averaged across the counties represented for each state. Read the methodology before using this comparison for a local decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which US state is safest from natural disasters?
North Dakota has the lowest average county-level FEMA National Risk Index score, 22.2/100, among the 48 states with at least 5 scored counties -- meaning FEMA's own hazard-risk model rates its counties as facing the least combined natural-hazard risk. Single-county entities such as the District of Columbia are shown in the table but do not carry a state-average superlative, because one county is not a state average.
What is the risk gap between the safest and riskiest states?
New Jersey, the highest-risk state meeting the 5-county floor, has an average risk score roughly 4.1x higher than North Dakota's. The FEMA National Risk Index blends hazard likelihood, expected annual loss, and community resilience/vulnerability into a single county-level score, which this ranking averages up to the state level.
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Every figure on PlainHazard is rendered directly from FEMA federal disaster data, no number is typed in by an editor. This ranking aggregates FEMA National Risk Index county scores. It labels the aggregation rather than presenting it as a forecast. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these numbers, or national statistics report, the data & editorial changelog, or report a data error.